The Propagation Of Uncertainty Through Travel Demand Models
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The Propagation of Uncertainty Through Travel Demand Models
The future operations of transportation systems involve enormous uncertainty - in both input and model parameters. This work investigates the stability of contemporary transport demand model output by quantifying variability in model input, such as zonal socioeconomic data and trip generation rates. It simulates the propagation of their variation through a series of common demand models over a simplified twenty-five-zone network. The results suggest that uncertainty may be compounded over a series of models and highly correlated across output. The propagated uncertainty varies remarkably in link flows, thus, some link flows may be more uncertain than others. The final step model, trip assignment, may reduce prior increased uncertainty through the first three steps, but generally could not lessen the uncertainty lower than the input uncertainty. Mispredictions at early stages (e.g., trip generation) in multi-stage models appear to amplify across later stages; thus, improvements to these models and their estimates are sorely needed.
Transportation Statistics
In recent years, transportation systems have been judged on performance-based outcomes, thus, quantitative methods have become increasingly important to such assessments. This definitive reference will equip you with state-of-the-art statistical tools used in transportation modeling, how to interpret results and analyze the implications of those results.
Computer-based Modelling and Optimization in Transportation
Author: Jorge Freire Sousa
language: en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date: 2014-02-20
This volume brings together works resulting from research carried out by members of the EURO Working Group on Transportation (EWGT) and presented during meetings and workshops organized by the Group under the patronage of the Association of European Operational Research Societies in 2012 and 2013. The main targets of the EWGT include providing a forum to share research information and experience, encouraging joint research and the development of both theoretical methods and applications, and promoting cooperation among the many institutions and organizations which are leaders at national level in the field of transportation and logistics. The primary fields of interest concern operational research methods, mathematical models and computation algorithms, to solve and sustain solutions to problems mainly faced by public administrations, city authorities, public transport companies, service providers and logistic operators. Related areas of interest are: land use and transportation planning, traffic control and simulation models, traffic network equilibrium models, public transport planning and management, applications of combinatorial optimization, vehicle routing and scheduling, intelligent transport systems, logistics and freight transport, environment problems, transport safety, and impact evaluation methods. In this volume, attention focuses on the following topics of interest: · Decision-making and decision support · Energy and Environmental Impacts · Urban network design · Optimization and simulation · Traffic Modelling, Control and Network Traffic Management · Transportation Planning · Mobility, Accessibility and Travel Behavior · Vehicle Routing