The Optimists
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Triumph of the Optimists
Author: Elroy Dimson
language: en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date: 2009-04-11
"Brilliant."—Time "By far the most important investment book in years."—Bloomberg Money "A book that belongs on every investor's bookshelf."—MSN.com An essential and authoritative account of a century of investment returns in sixteen countries—the U.S., the U.K., Japan, France, Germany, Canada, Italy, Spain, Switzerland, Australia, the Netherlands, Sweden, Belgium, Ireland, Denmark, and South Africa Investors have too often extrapolated from recent experience. In the 1950s, who but the most rampant optimist would have dreamt that over the next fifty years the real return on equities would be 9% per year? Yet this is what happened in the U.S. stock market. The optimists triumphed. However, as Don Marquis observed, an optimist is someone who never had much experience. In Triumph of the Optimists, renowned investment authorities Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh, and Mike Staunton extend our experience across regions and across time. They present a comprehensive and consistent analysis of investment returns for equities, bonds, bills, currencies, and inflation, spanning sixteen countries, from the end of the nineteenth century to the beginning of the twenty-first. This is achieved in a clear and simple way, with over 130 color diagrams that make comparison easy. Crucially, the authors analyze total returns, including reinvested income. They show that some historical indexes overstate long-term performance because they are contaminated by survivorship bias and that long-term stock returns are in most countries seriously overestimated, due to a focus on periods that with hindsight are known to have been successful. The book also provides the first comprehensive evidence on the long-term equity risk premium—the reward for bearing the risk of common stocks. The authors reveal whether the United States and United Kingdom have had unusually high stock market returns compared to other countries. The book covers the U.S., the U.K., Japan, France, Germany, Canada, Italy, Spain, Switzerland, Australia, the Netherlands, Sweden, Belgium, Ireland, Denmark, and South Africa. Triumph of the Optimists is required reading for investment professionals, financial economists, and investors. It will be the definitive reference in the field and consulted for years to come.
The Optimist's Path
In a world that often seems overwhelmed by negativity, it’s easy to fall into a mindset dominated by fear, doubt, and despair. The news bombards us with stories of conflict and disaster, social media amplifies our insecurities, and our own minds, shaped by millennia of evolution, seem wired to focus on what could go wrong rather than what could go right. This tendency is rooted in what psychologists call the negativity bias—a survival mechanism that has helped our ancestors stay alert to dangers and threats, ensuring our species’ survival. But while this bias served a vital purpose in a world where immediate threats were everywhere, in today’s complex and interconnected world, it can often do more harm than good. Imagine, for a moment, the life of a mouse. This tiny creature lives in a constant state of vigilance, always on the lookout for predators. Every rustle in the grass, every shadow overhead, could mean life or death. The mouse’s survival depends on its ability to sense danger and react swiftly, driven by a deep-rooted fear. But even with all this caution, the mouse may still fall prey to a hawk or a cat. Despite a lifetime of fear and anxiety, its end is still uncertain. Now, consider how this analogy applies to humans. Like the mouse, we too are often driven by fear—fear of failure, fear of rejection, fear of the unknown. We focus on negative possibilities, convinced that by doing so, we might protect ourselves from harm. But unlike the mouse, humans possess something more: the capacity for reflection, reasoning, and, most importantly, choice. We can choose not to live our lives dictated by fear. We can choose to focus on the positives, to cultivate optimism, and to embrace life’s challenges with hope and resilience. This book, "The Optimist’s Path: Harnessing Positivity for Success, Purpose, and Meaning," is an exploration of how to make that choice. It delves into the psychological and philosophical foundations of optimism, offering insights and strategies for living a more fulfilling, meaningful life. Through a blend of psychology and philosophy, we will uncover the profound impact that a positive mindset can have on our mental and physical health, our relationships, our careers, and our overall sense of purpose. The journey begins with understanding the basic human tendency to focus on the negative, as illustrated in the tale of the mouse and the man. From there, we explore the many benefits of optimism—how it can strengthen our resilience, improve our health, and even extend our lives. We will look at the science behind optimism, drawing on the latest psychological research, and we will revisit the wisdom of ancient philosophers who understood the power of a positive mindset long before the term "optimism" was coined. But this book is not just about theory; it’s about practical application. You’ll find strategies for cultivating optimism in your daily life, from simple cognitive techniques to profound shifts in perspective. We’ll discuss how to balance optimism with realism, ensuring that our positive outlook is grounded in reality, not wishful thinking. And, in the final chapter, we’ll reflect on the ultimate purpose of life through the eyes of a monk who, despite having no material wealth, finds joy and fulfillment in the simplest of things. As you embark on this journey, I invite you to consider what it means to truly live. Is it simply about surviving, like the mouse, constantly on guard against the next threat? Or is it about thriving, embracing life’s uncertainties with an open heart and a hopeful spirit? The choice is yours. And by choosing optimism, you’re not just choosing to see the glass as half full; you’re choosing a path that leads to a richer, more meaningful existence. Welcome to The Optimist’s Path—a journey toward a life filled with hope, resilience, and the quiet, unshakable belief that, despite the challenges, life is inherently good.
The Optimist's Daughter
This Pulitzer Prize–winning novel tells the story of Laurel McKelva Hand, a young woman who has left the South and returns, years later, to New Orleans, where her father is dying. After his death, she and her silly young stepmother go back still farther, to the small Mississippi town where she grew up. Along in the old house, Laurel finally comes to an understanding of the past, herself, and her parents.