Probabilistic Model Of Delay Propagation Along The Train Flow
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Probabilistic Modeling in System Engineering
Author: Andrey Kostogryzov
language: en
Publisher: BoD – Books on Demand
Release Date: 2018-09-26
This book is intended for systems analysts, designers, developers, users, experts, as well as those involved in quality, risk, safety and security management, and, of course, scientists and students. The various sets of original and traditional probabilistic models and interesting results of their applications to the research of different systems are presented. The models are understandable and applicable for solving system engineering problems: to optimize system requirements, compare different processes, rationale technical decisions, carry out tests, adjust technological parameters, and predict and analyze quality and risks. The engineering decisions, scientifically proven by the proposed models and software tools, can provide purposeful, essential improvement of quality and mitigation of risks, and reduce the expense of operating systems. Models, methods, and software tools can also be used in education for system analysis and mathematical modeling on specializations, for example "systems engineering," "operations research," "enterprise management," "project management," "risk management," "quality of systems," "safety and security," "smart systems," "system of systems," etc.
Probabilistic Model of Delay Propagation Along the Train Flow
In this chapter, we propose a probabilistic model for train delay propagation. There are deduced formulas for the probability distributions of arrival headways and knock-on delays depending on distributions of the primary delay duration and the departure headways. We prove some key mathematical statements. The obtained formulas allow to predict the frequency of train arrival delays and to determine the optimal traffic adjustments. Several important special cases of initial probability distributions are considered. Results of the theoretical analysis are verified by comparison with statistical data on the train traffic at the Russian railways.
Modern Traffic Engineering in the System Approach to the Development of Traffic Networks
Author: Elżbieta Macioszek
language: en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date: 2019-10-31
This book presents a number of guidelines that are particularly useful in the context of decisions related to system-approach-based modern traffic engineering for the development of transport networks. Including practical examples and describing decision-making support systems it provides valuable insights for those seeking solutions to contemporary transport system problems on a daily basis, such as professional working for local authorities involved in planning urban and regional traffic development strategies as well as representatives of business and industry directly involved in implementing traffic engineering solutions. The guidelines provided enable readers to address problems in a timely manner and simplify the choice of appropriate strategies (including those connected with the relation between pedestrians and vehicle traffic flows, IT development in freight transport, safety issues related to accidents in road tunnels, but also open areas, like roundabouts and crossings). Furthermore, since the book also examines new theoretical-model approaches (including the model of arrival time distribution forming in a dense vehicle flow, the methodological basis of modelling and optimization of transport processes in the interaction of railways and maritime transport, traffic flow surveys and measurements, transport behaviour patterns, human factors in traffic engineering, and road condition modelling), it also appeals to researches and scientists studying these problems. This book features selected papers submitted to and presented at the 16th Scientific and Technical Conference Transport Systems Theory and Practice organized by the Department of Transport Systems and Traffic Engineering at the Faculty of Transport of the Silesian University of Technology. The conference was held on 16–18 September 2019 in Katowice (Poland), more details at www.TSTP.polsl.pl.