Pembangunan Sdm Unggul Menuju Negara Kesejahteraan Pancasila 2045

Pembangunan SDM unggul menuju negara kesejahteraan Pancasila 2045

Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap

The “middle-income trap” is the phenomenon of hitherto rapidly growing economies stagnating at middle-income levels and failing to graduate into the ranks of high-income countries. In this study we examine the middle-income trap as a special case of growth slowdowns, which are identified as large sudden and sustained deviations from the growth path predicted by a basic conditional convergence framework. We then examine their determinants by means of probit regressions, looking into the role of institutions, demography, infrastructure, the macroeconomic environment, output structure and trade structure. Two variants of Bayesian Model Averaging are used as robustness checks. The results—including some that indeed speak to the special status of middle-income countries—are then used to derive policy implications, with a particular focus on Asian economies.

World Development Report 2020

Global value chains (GVCs) powered the rapid expansion of international trade after 1990. Countries import not only for domestic consumption, but also to export, and transactions typically involve long-term, firm-to-firm relationships rather than anonymous spot market transactions. Trade and the rise of GVCs enabled an unprecedented convergence: poor countries grew faster and began to catch up with richer countries. More than 1 billion people escaped poverty as a result. Since the Great Recession, the growth of trade has been sluggish and the expansion of GVCs has slowed down. At the same time, potentially serious threats have emerged to the model of labor-intensive, trade-led growth. New labor-saving technologies could draw production closer to the consumer and reduce demand for labor. And trade conflict among large countries could lead to a retrenchment of supply chains or a segmentation of GVCs. The World Development Report (WDR) 2020: Trading for Development in the Age of Global Value Chains examines whether there is still a path to development through GVCs. It concludes that technological change is at this stage more a boon than a curse. GVCs can continue to boost growth, create better jobs, and reduce poverty, provided that developing countries implement deeper reforms and industrial countries pursue open, predictable policies.