Method Of Forecasting Fundamentals
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Forecasting: principles and practice
Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
Forecasting Fundamentals
This book is for everyone who wants to make better forecasts. This book is not about mathematics and statistics. It is about following a well-established forecasting process to create and implement good forecasts. This is true whether you are forecasting global markets, product demand, competitive strategy, or market disruptions. Today, most forecasts are generated using software. However, no amount of technology and statistics can compensate for a poor forecasting process. Forecasting is not just about generating a number. Forecasters need to understand the problems they are trying to solve. They also need to follow a process that is justifiable to other parties and be implemented in practice. This is what this book is about. Business leaders know that accurate forecasting is a critical organizational capability. Forecasting is predicting the future, and the list of what needs to be predicted to run a world-class organization is endless. Forecasting goes well beyond simply predicting demand or sales. Accurate forecasts are essential for identifying new market opportunities, forecasting risks, events, supply chain disruptions, innovation, competition, market growth, and trends. It also includes the ability to conduct "what-if " analysis to understand the tradeoff implications of decisions. Companies can navigate this daunting landscape and improve their forecasts by following some well-established principles and bearing in mind certain caveats to conventional wisdom. This book is written to provide the fundamentals business leaders need in order to make good forecasts. These fundamentals hold true regardless of what is being forecast and what technology is being used. This book provides the basic foundational principles all companies need to achieve competitive forecast accuracy.
Fundamentals of Forecasting Using Excel
Author: Kenneth D. Lawrence
language: en
Publisher: Industrial Press Inc.
Release Date: 2009
Forecasting is an integral part of almost all business enterprises. This book provides readers with the tools to analyze their data, develop forecasting models and present the results in Excel. Progressing from data collection, data presentation, to a step-by-step development of the forecasting techniques, this essential text covers techniques that include but not limited to time series-moving average, exponential smoothing, trending, simple and multiple regression, and Box-Jenkins. And unlike other products of its kind that require either high-priced statistical software or Excel add-ins, this book does not require such software. It can be used both as a primary text and as a supplementary text. Highlights the use of Excel screen shots, data tables, and graphs. Features Full Scale Use of Excel in Forecasting without the Use of Specialized Forecast Packages Includes Excel templates. Emphasizes the practical application of forecasting. Provides coverage of Special Forecasting, including New Product Forecasting, Network Models Forecasting, Links to Input/Output Modeling, and Combination of Forecasting.