Global Sensitivity Analysis

Global Sensitivity Analysis

Complex mathematical and computational models are used in all areas of society and technology and yet model based science is increasingly contested or refuted, especially when models are applied to controversial themes in domains such as health, the environment or the economy. More stringent standards of proofs are demanded from model-based numbers, especially when these numbers represent potential financial losses, threats to human health or the state of the environment. Quantitative sensitivity analysis is generally agreed to be one such standard. Mathematical models are good at mapping assumptions into inferences. A modeller makes assumptions about laws pertaining to the system, about its status and a plethora of other, often arcane, system variables and internal model settings. To what extent can we rely on the model-based inference when most of these assumptions are fraught with uncertainties? Global Sensitivity Analysis offers an accessible treatment of such problems via quantitative sensitivity analysis, beginning with the first principles and guiding the reader through the full range of recommended practices with a rich set of solved exercises. The text explains the motivation for sensitivity analysis, reviews the required statistical concepts, and provides a guide to potential applications. The book: Provides a self-contained treatment of the subject, allowing readers to learn and practice global sensitivity analysis without further materials. Presents ways to frame the analysis, interpret its results, and avoid potential pitfalls. Features numerous exercises and solved problems to help illustrate the applications. Is authored by leading sensitivity analysis practitioners, combining a range of disciplinary backgrounds. Postgraduate students and practitioners in a wide range of subjects, including statistics, mathematics, engineering, physics, chemistry, environmental sciences, biology, toxicology, actuarial sciences, and econometrics will find much of use here. This book will prove equally valuable to engineers working on risk analysis and to financial analysts concerned with pricing and hedging.

Extensions of Global Sensitivity Analysis

Basics and Trends in Sensitivity Analysis: Theory and Practice in R

This book provides an overview of global sensitivity analysis methods and algorithms, including their theoretical basis and mathematical properties. The authors use a practical point of view and real case studies as well as numerous examples, and applications of the different approaches are illustrated throughout using R code to explain their usage and usefulness in practice. Basics and Trends in Sensitivity Analysis: Theory and Practice in R covers a lot of material, including theoretical aspects of Sobol’ indices as well as sampling-based formulas, spectral methods, and metamodel-based approaches for estimation purposes; screening techniques devoted to identifying influential and noninfluential inputs; variance-based measures when model inputs are statistically dependent (and several other approaches that go beyond variance-based sensitivity measures); and a case study in R related to a COVID-19 epidemic model where the full workflow of sensitivity analysis combining several techniques is presented. This book is intended for engineers, researchers, and undergraduate students who use complex numerical models and have an interest in sensitivity analysis techniques and is appropriate for anyone with a solid mathematical background in basic statistical and probability theories who develops and uses numerical models in all scientific and engineering domains.