Dynamic Modeling To Inform Environmental Management
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Dynamic Modeling to Inform Environmental Management
Two original computer simulation models are presented in this thesis. Although these models differ in their temporal, spatial, and structural dimensions, they are unified by a common purpose: to build quantitative understanding of environmental resources and better inform their future management. According to the U.S. Department of the Interior's Minerals Management Service, there are significant undiscovered reserves of oil and natural gas located in the Gulf of Mexico Outer Continental Shelf region. While the existence of these energy resources is critical to the nation's future economic well-being, of equal importance is the amount of already extracted energy that will be required to deliver the new fuel to society in a useful form; the difference between the two quantities is the net energy supply. "Energy return on investment" (EROI) is an indicator of the net productivity of an energy supply process; specifically, it is the ratio of gross energy production to total, direct plus indirect, energy cost. Chapter 1 describes a dynamic model designed to calculate the EROI of offshore energy extraction in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico from 1985 to 2004 under differing assumptions regarding energy cost and technology. In 2004, the EROI of the process is estimated to range from 10 to 25 depending on how comprehensively energy costs are defined. In comparison, the EROI of U.S. onshore petroleum extraction in the 1930s was at least 100. Ecosystem services are those functions of ecosystems that support, directly or indirectly, human welfare. Although interest in ecosystem services has surged in recent decades and is currently still on the rise, these phenomena have yet to be universally quantified. The current Multi-scale, Integrated Models of Ecosystem Services (MIMES) project is an ambitious attempt to do so through dynamic, spatially explicit modeling. As a part of this broad initiative, Chapter 2 details the development and testing of a model designed to measure and map the ecosystem service "water regulation" at multiple scales. The model is an extension of the well known and widely used "runoff curve number" method originally developed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture; it is applied to the Winooski watershed (Vermont, U.S.A.) and to the entire globe.
Agent-Based Modeling of Environmental Conflict and Cooperation
Conflict is a major facet of many environmental challenges of our time. However, growing conflict complexity makes it more difficult to identify win-win strategies for sustainable conflict resolution. Innovative methods are needed to help predict, understand, and resolve conflicts in cooperative ways. Agent-Based Modeling of Environmental Conflict and Cooperation examines computer modeling techniques as an important set of tools for assessing environmental and resource-based conflicts and, ultimately, for finding pathways to conflict resolution and cooperation. This book has two major goals. First, it argues that complexity science can be a unifying framework for professions engaged in conflict studies and resolution, including anthropology, law, management, peace studies, urban planning, and geography. Second, this book presents an innovative framework for approaching conflicts as complex adaptive systems by using many forms of environmental analysis, including system dynamics modeling, agent-based modeling, evolutionary game theory, viability theory, and network analysis. Known as VIABLE (Values and Investments from Agent-Based interaction and Learning in Environmental systems), this framework allows users to model advanced facets of conflicts—including institution building, coalition formation, adaptive learning, and the potential for future conflict—and conflict resolution based on the long-term viability of the actors’ strategies. Written for scholars, students, practitioners, and policy makers alike, this book offers readers an extensive introduction to environmental conflict research and resolution techniques. As the result of decades of research, the text presents a strong argument for conflict modeling and reviews the most popular and advanced techniques, including system dynamics modeling, agent-based modeling, and participatory modeling methods. This indispensable guide uses NetLogo, a widely used and free modeling software package, to implement the VIABLE modeling approach in three case study applications around the world. Readers are invited to explore, adapt, modify, and expand these models to conflicts they hope to better understand and resolve.
Adaptive Environmental Management
Author: Catherine Allan
language: en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date: 2009-06-05
Adaptive management is the recommended means for continuing ecosystem management and use of natural resources, especially in the context of ‘integrated natural resource management’. Conceptually, adaptive management is simply learning from past management actions to improve future planning and management. However, adaptive management has proved difficult to achieve in practice. With a view to facilitating better practice, this new book presents lessons learned from case studies, to provide managers with ready access to relevant information. Cases are drawn from a number of disciplinary fields, including management of protected areas, watersheds and farms, rivers, forests, biodiversity and pests. Examples from Australia, New Zealand, the USA, Canada, the UK and Europe are presented at a variety of scales, from individual farms, through regional projects, to state-wide planning. While the book is designed primarily for practitioners and policy advisors in the fields of environmental and natural resource management, it will also provide a valuable reference for students and researchers with interests in environmental, natural resource and conservation management.