World Seaborne Trade In Real Time A Proof Of Concept For Building Ais Based Nowcasts From Scratch
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World Seaborne Trade in Real Time: A Proof of Concept for Building AIS-based Nowcasts from Scratch
Author: Diego A. Cerdeiro
language: en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date: 2020-05-14
Maritime data from the Automatic Identification System (AIS) have emerged as a potential source for real time information on trade activity. However, no globally applicable end-to-end solution has been published to transform raw AIS messages into economically meaningful, policy-relevant indicators of international trade. Our paper proposes and tests a set of algorithms to fill this gap. We build indicators of world seaborne trade using raw data from the radio signals that the global vessel fleet emits for navigational safety purposes. We leverage different machine-learning techniques to identify port boundaries, construct port-to-port voyages, and estimate trade volumes at the world, bilateral and within-country levels. Our methodology achieves a good fit with official trade statistics for many countries and for the world in aggregate. We also show the usefulness of our approach for sectoral analyses of crude oil trade, and for event studies such as Hurricane Maria and the effect of measures taken to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus. Going forward, ongoing refinements of our algorithms, additional data on vessel characteristics, and country-specific knowledge should help improve the performance of our general approach for several country cases.
Routledge Handbook of Maritime Security
Author: Ruxandra-Laura Boşilcă
language: en
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Release Date: 2022-07-25
This handbook offers a critical and substantial analysis of maritime security and documents the most pressing strategic, economic, socio-cultural and legal questions surrounding it. Written by leading international experts, this comprehensive volume presents a wide variety of theoretical positions on maritime security, detailing its achievements and outlining outstanding issues faced by those in the field. The book includes studies which cover the entire spectrum of activity along which maritime security is developing, including, piracy, cyber security, energy security, terrorism, narco-subs and illegal fishing. Demonstrating the transformative character and potential of the topic, the book is divided into two parts. The first part exhibits a range of perspectives and new approaches to maritime security, and the second explores emerging developments in the practice of security at sea, as well as regional studies written by local maritime security experts. Taken together, these contributions provide a compelling account of the evolving maritime security environment, casting fresh light on theoretical and empirical aspects. The book will be of much interest to practitioners and students of maritime security, naval studies, security studies, maritime history, and International Relations in general. Chapter 13 of this book is freely available as a downloadable Open Access PDF at http://www.taylorfrancis.com under a Creative Commons [Attribution-Non Commercial] (CC-BY-NC)] 4.0 license.
Tracking Trade from Space: An Application to Pacific Island Countries
Author: Mr. Serkan Arslanalp
language: en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date: 2021-08-20
This paper proposes an easy-to-follow approach to track merchandise trade using vessel data and applies it to Pacific island countries. Pacific islands rely heavily on imports and maritime transport for trade. They are also highly vulnerable to climate change and natural disasters that pose risks to ports and supply chains. Using satellite-based vessel tracking data from the UN Global Platform, we construct daily indicators of port and trade activity for Pacific island countries. The algorithm significantly advances estimation techniques of previous studies, particularly by employing ways to overcome challenges with the estimation of cargo payloads, using detailed information on shipping liner schedules to validate port calls, and applying country-specific information to define port boundaries. The approach can complement and help fill gaps in official data, provide early warning signs of turning points in economic activity, and assist policymakers and international organizations to monitor and provide timely responses to shocks (e.g., COVID-19).