Weather Modeling And Forecasting Of Pv Systems Operation
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Weather Modeling and Forecasting of PV Systems Operation
Author: Marius Paulescu
language: en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date: 2012-11-05
In the past decade, there has been a substantial increase of grid-feeding photovoltaic applications, thus raising the importance of solar electricity in the energy mix. This trend is expected to continue and may even increase. Apart from the high initial investment cost, the fluctuating nature of the solar resource raises particular insertion problems in electrical networks. Proper grid managing demands short- and long-time forecasting of solar power plant output. Weather modeling and forecasting of PV systems operation is focused on this issue. Models for predicting the state of the sky, nowcasting solar irradiance and forecasting solar irradiation are studied and exemplified. Statistical as well as artificial intelligence methods are described. The efficiency of photovoltaic converters is assessed for any weather conditions. Weather modeling and forecasting of PV systems operation is written for researchers, engineers, physicists and students interested in PV systems design and utilization. “p>
Computational Intelligence in Photovoltaic Systems
Photovoltaics, among the different renewable energy sources (RES), has become more popular. In recent years, however, many research topics have arisen as a result of the problems that are constantly faced in smart-grid and microgrid operations, such as forecasting of the output of power plant production, storage sizing, modeling, and control optimization of photovoltaic systems. Computational intelligence algorithms (evolutionary optimization, neural networks, fuzzy logic, etc.) have become more and more popular as alternative approaches to conventional techniques for solving problems such as modeling, identification, optimization, availability prediction, forecasting, sizing, and control of stand-alone, grid-connected, and hybrid photovoltaic systems. This Special Issue will investigate the most recent developments and research on solar power systems. This Special Issue “Computational Intelligence in Photovoltaic Systems” is highly recommended for readers with an interest in the various aspects of solar power systems, and includes 10 original research papers covering relevant progress in the following (non-exhaustive) fields: Forecasting techniques (deterministic, stochastic, etc.); DC/AC converter control and maximum power point tracking techniques; Sizing and optimization of photovoltaic system components; Photovoltaics modeling and parameter estimation; Maintenance and reliability modeling; Decision processes for grid operators.
Ensemble Forecasting Applied to Power Systems
Modern power systems are affected by many sources of uncertainty, driven by the spread of renewable generation, by the development of liberalized energy market systems and by the intrinsic random behavior of the final energy customers. Forecasting is, therefore, a crucial task in planning and managing modern power systems at any level: from transmission to distribution networks, and in also the new context of smart grids. Recent trends suggest the suitability of ensemble approaches in order to increase the versatility and robustness of forecasting systems. Stacking, boosting, and bagging techniques have recently started to attract the interest of power system practitioners. This book addresses the development of new, advanced, ensemble forecasting methods applied to power systems, collecting recent contributions to the development of accurate forecasts of energy-related variables by some of the most qualified experts in energy forecasting. Typical areas of research (renewable energy forecasting, load forecasting, energy price forecasting) are investigated, with relevant applications to the use of forecasts in energy management systems.