Uncertainty And Optimality

Optimal Decisions under Uncertainty

The theory of optimal decisions in a stochastic environment has seen many new developments in recent years. The implications of such theory for empirical and policy applications are several. This book attempts to analyze some of the impor tant applied aspects of this theory and its recent developments. The stochastic environment is considered here in specific form, e.g., (a) linear programs (LP) with parameters subject to a probabilistic mechanism, (b) decision models with risk aversion, (c) resource allocation in a team, and (d) national economic planning. The book attempts to provide new research insights into several areas, e.g., (a) mixed strategy solutions and econometric tests of hypotheses of LP models, (b) the dual problems of efficient estimation and optimal regulation, (c) input-output planning under imperfect competition, and (d) linear programs viewed as constrained statistical games. Methods of optimal decision rules developed here for quadratic and linear decision problems are applicable in three broad areas: (a) applied economic models in resource allocation, planning and team decision, (b) operations research models in management decisions involving portfolio analysis and stochastic programming, and (c) systems science models in stochastic control and adaptive behavior. Some results reported here have been published in professional journals be-. fore, and I would like to thank the following journals in particular: Inter national Journal of Systems Science, Journal of Optimization Theory and Applica tions and Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications.

Uncertain Optimal Control

This book introduces the theory and applications of uncertain optimal control, and establishes two types of models including expected value uncertain optimal control and optimistic value uncertain optimal control. These models, which have continuous-time forms and discrete-time forms, make use of dynamic programming. The uncertain optimal control theory relates to equations of optimality, uncertain bang-bang optimal control, optimal control with switched uncertain system, and optimal control for uncertain system with time-delay. Uncertain optimal control has applications in portfolio selection, engineering, and games. The book is a useful resource for researchers, engineers, and students in the fields of mathematics, cybernetics, operations research, industrial engineering, artificial intelligence, economics, and management science.

Preferences, Uncertainty, And Optimality