Toward Interactive And Intelligent Decision Support Systems

Toward Interactive and Intelligent Decision Support Systems

In the past, technological as well as economic forces dominated the evolution of industrial structures: these factors have been treated extensively in numerous studies. However, another major factor which has begun to have a decisive influ ence on the performance of the chemical industry is technological risk and public and environmental health considerations, in particular those related to toxic and hazardous substances used in industrial production processes. The issues of con trolling process risk, waste streams, and potential environmental consequences of accidental or routine release of hazardous chemicals are rapidly gaining in impor tance vis CI vis narrow economic considerations, and are increasingly reflected in national and international legislation. In the context of several ongoing R&D projects aiming at the development of a new generation of tools for "intelligent" decision support, two related problem areas that have been identified are: (i) Structuring the industry or plant for the minimum cost of production as well as least risk - e.g., toxicity of chemicals involved. In this multi-criteria framework, we seek to resolve the conflict between industrial structure or plant design established by economic considerations and the one shaped by environmental concerns. This can be formulated as a design problem for nor mal production conditions. In section 3.1. and 3.2. an approach on how to deal with this problem at the industry and plant level is discussed.

Toward interactive and intelligent decision support systems

Design of Adaptive Organizations

Organization design has been discussed by many authors in management and organization theory. They have obtained intuitive and prescriptive propositions appealing that the best organization design is contingent on the environmental conditions. But their studies, called contingency theory, are mostly based on empirical research. Most of the "propositions" are drawn as only inferences from the results of them. On the other hand, decision theoretic models of "organizations" in the stochastic environment have been studied by some economists and management scientists independently of contingency theory. In this book, important aspects of organization design problems are formulated as statistical decision problems in the framework of management and organization theory. Part One of this book analyzes a short-run adaptive problems of the organization design. Part One contains an expanded exposition of the ideas and results published in the professional journals, and I would like to thank the anonymous reviewers of the following journals: Behaviormetrika, Human Relations, Behavioral Science. Part Two of this book considers a long-run adaptive process in the organization, and has not previously been published in its IV present form, although a version of this part is to appear in Journal of the Department of Liberal Arts, March 1987, The University of Tokyo. The resul ts of Part One and Part Two are supported by the empirical research on Japanese firms in Part Three. This research was financially supported by Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Public Corporation (NTT). I acknowledge this gratefully.