Time Series Analysis Forecasting Using Python And R
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Time Series Analysis and Forecasting Using Python & R
This book full-color textbook assumes a basic understanding of statistics and mathematical or statistical modeling. Although a little programming experience would be nice, but it is not required. We use current real-world data, like COVID-19, to motivate times series analysis have three thread problems that appear in nearly every chapter: "Got Milk?", "Got a Job?" and "Where's the Beef?" Chapter 1: Loading data in the R-Studio and Jupyter Notebook environments. Chapter 2: Components of a times series and decomposition Chapter 3: Moving averages (MAs) and COVID-19 Chapter 4: Simple exponential smoothing (SES), Holt's and Holt-Winter's double and triple exponential smoothing Chapter 5: Python programming in Jupyter Notebook for the concepts covered in Chapters 2, 3 and 4 Chapter 6: Stationarity and differencing, including unit root tests. Chapter 7: ARIMA and SARMIA (seasonal) modeling and forecast development Chapter 8: ARIMA modeling using Python Chapter 9: Structural models and analysis using unobserved component models (UCMs) Chapter 10: Advanced time series analysis, including time-series interventions, exogenous regressors, and vector autoregressive (VAR) processes.
TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS: FORECASTING STOCK PRICE USING MACHINE LEARNING WITH PYTHON GUI
Stock trading and financial instrument markets offer significant opportunities for wealth creation. The ability to predict stock price movements has long intrigued researchers and investors alike. While some theories, like the Efficient Market Hypothesis, suggest that consistently beating the market is nearly impossible, others contest this viewpoint. Stock price prediction involves forecasting the future value of a given stock. In this project, we focus on the S&P 500 Index, which consists of 500 stocks from various sectors of the US economy and serves as a key indicator of US equities. To tackle this task, we utilize the Yahoo stock price history dataset, which contains 1825 rows and 7 columns including Date, High, Low, Open, Close, Volume, and Adj Close. To enhance our predictions, we incorporate technical indicators such as daily returns, Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD), Relative Strength Index (RSI), Simple Moving Average (SMA), lower and upper bands, and standard deviation. In this book, for the forecasting task, we employ various regression algorithms including Linear Regression, Random Forest Regression, Decision Tree Regression, Support Vector Regression, Naïve Bayes Regression, K-Nearest Neighbor Regression, Adaboost Regression, Gradient Boosting Regression, Extreme Gradient Boosting Regression, Light Gradient Boosting Regression, Catboost Regression, MLP Regression, Lasso Regression, and Ridge Regression. These models aim to predict the future Adj Close price of the stock based on historical data. In addition to stock price prediction, we also delve into predicting stock daily returns using machine learning models. We utilize K-Nearest Neighbor Classifier, Random Forest Classifier, Naive Bayes Classifier, Logistic Regression Classifier, Decision Tree Classifier, Support Vector Machine Classifier, LGBM Classifier, Gradient Boosting Classifier, XGB Classifier, MLP Classifier, and Extra Trees Classifier. These models are trained to predict the direction of daily stock returns (positive or negative) based on various features and technical indicators. To assess the performance of these machine learning models, we evaluate several important metrics. Accuracy measures the overall correctness of the predictions, while recall quantifies the ability to correctly identify positive cases (upward daily returns). Precision evaluates the precision of positive predictions, and the F1 score provides a balanced measure of precision and recall. Additionally, we consider macro average, which calculates the average metric value across all classes, and weighted average, which provides a balanced representation considering class imbalances. To enhance the user experience and facilitate data exploration, we develop a graphical user interface (GUI). The GUI is built using PyQt and offers an interactive platform for users to visualize and interact with the data. It provides features such as plotting boundary decisions, visualizing feature distributions and importance, comparing predicted values with true values, displaying confusion matrices, learning curves, model performance, and scalability analysis. The GUI allows users to customize the analysis by selecting different models, time periods, or variables of interest, making it accessible and user-friendly for individuals without extensive programming knowledge. The combination of exploring the dataset, forecasting stock prices, predicting daily returns, and developing a GUI creates a comprehensive framework for analyzing and understanding stock market trends. By leveraging machine learning algorithms and evaluating performance metrics, we gain valuable insights into the accuracy and effectiveness of our predictions. The GUI further enhances the accessibility and usability of the analysis, enabling users to make data-driven decisions and explore the stock market with ease.
Extending Excel with Python and R
Author: Steven Sanderson
language: en
Publisher: Packt Publishing Ltd
Release Date: 2024-04-30
Seamlessly integrate the Python and R programming languages with spreadsheet-based data analysis to maximize productivity Key Features Perform advanced data analysis and visualization techniques with R and Python on Excel data Use exploratory data analysis and pivot table analysis for deeper insights into your data Integrate R and Python code directly into Excel using VBA or API endpoints Purchase of the print or Kindle book includes a free PDF eBook Book Description– Extending Excel with Python and R is a game changer resource written by experts Steven Sanderson, the author of the healthyverse suite of R packages, and David Kun, co-founder of Functional Analytics. – This comprehensive guide transforms the way you work with spreadsheet-based data by integrating Python and R with Excel to automate tasks, execute statistical analysis, and create powerful visualizations. – Working through the chapters, you’ll find out how to perform exploratory data analysis, time series analysis, and even integrate APIs for maximum efficiency. – Both beginners and experts will get everything you need to unlock Excel's full potential and take your data analysis skills to the next level. – By the end of this book, you’ll be able to import data from Excel, manipulate it in R or Python, and perform the data analysis tasks in your preferred framework while pushing the results back to Excel for sharing with others as needed. What you will learn Read and write Excel files with R and Python libraries Automate Excel tasks with R and Python scripts Use R and Python to execute Excel VBA macros Format Excel sheets using R and Python packages Create graphs with ggplot2 and Matplotlib in Excel Analyze Excel data with statistical methods and time series analysis Explore various methods to call R and Python functions from Excel Who this book is for – If you’re a data analyst or data scientist, or a quants, actuaries, or data practitioner looking to enhance your Excel skills and expand your data analysis capabilities with R and Python, this book is for you. – The comprehensive approach to the topics covered makes it suitable for both beginners and intermediate learners. – A basic understanding of Excel, Python, and R is all you need to get started.