The Phantom Pattern Problem
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The Phantom Pattern Problem
We have all been bred to be fooled, to be attracted to shiny patterns and glittery correlations. Big data and powerful computers feed this addiction because they make it so easy to find such baubles-and they also ensure that most of what we find is rubbish. It is up Lo us to resist the allure, to not be fooled by phantom pattern. Book jacket.
The Phantom Pattern Problem
Author: Gary Smith
language: en
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Release Date: 2020-09-25
Pattern-recognition prowess served our ancestors well, but today we are confronted by a deluge of data that is far more abstract, complicated, and difficult to interpret. The number of possible patterns that can be identified relative to the number that are genuinely useful has grown exponentially - which means that the chances that a discovered pattern is useful is rapidly approaching zero. Patterns in data are often used as evidence, but how can you tell if that evidence is worth believing? We are hard-wired to notice patterns and to think that the patterns we notice are meaningful. Streaks, clusters, and correlations are the norm, not the exception. Our challenge is to overcome our inherited inclination to think that all patterns are significant, as in this age of Big Data patterns are inevitable and usually coincidental. Through countless examples, The Phantom Pattern Problem is an engaging read that helps us avoid being duped by data, tricked into worthless investing strategies, or scared out of getting vaccinations.
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