The Noise
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The Noise
'A really entertaining thriller [that] like Michael Crichton . . . keeps ratcheting up the suspense' Booklist ____________________________ Two sisters have always stood together. Now, they're the only ones left. In the shadow of Mount Hood in the US Pacific Northwest, sixteen-year-old Tennant is checking rabbit traps with her eight-year-old sister Sophie. The girls are suddenly overcome by a strange vibration rising out of the forest, building in intensity until it sounds like a deafening crescendo of screams. From out of nowhere, their father sweeps them up and drops them through a trapdoor into a storm cellar. But the noise only gets worse . . . ________________________________ Praise for James Patterson 'The master storyteller of our times' Hillary Rodham Clinton 'Nobody does it better' Jeffery Deaver 'One of the greatest storytellers of all time' Patricia Cornwell 'A writer with an unusual skill at thriller plotting' Mark Lawson, Guardian 'James Patterson is The Boss. End of.' Ian Rankin
The Signal and the Noise
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • The groundbreaking exploration of probability and uncertainty that explains how to make better predictions in a world drowning in data, from the nation’s foremost political forecaster—updated with insights into the pandemic, journalism today, and polling One of The Wall Street Journal’s Ten Best Works of Nonfiction of the Year “Could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade.”—The New York Times Book Review Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work in sports and politics, Nate Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how to seek truth from data. In The Signal and the Noise, Silver visits innovative forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He discovers that what the most accurate ones have in common is a superior command of probability—as well as a healthy dose of humility. With everything from the global economy to the fight against disease hanging on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.