The Inflation Mechanism And Expectations
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The Inflation Mechanism and Expectations
This book reflects China's experience, model and theory of successful inflation control. The idea of Stabilization of Expectations emphasized by the Chinese government was primarily proposed in this book with systematic theoretical support. The theory framework initiated in this book has been about 10 years earlier than that of the European and American economists. The core theory of this work is Sticky Expectation Theory, which breaks through the framework of neoclassical economic theory, denies the fundamental preconditions of neoclassical economic theory to establish a new theoretical framework so as to understand people's economic behavior and explain the operating mechanism of economy. This book establishes the Chinese version of flexible inflation targeting system, policy transparency, policy rules, and expectation management as the means to prevent and manage inflation and macro-control. Readers will gain a better understanding of the research achievements of Chinese scholars in the field of inflation management as well as the theory of expectations. Readers can further understand the Chinese approach in tackling inflation issue and other macro-economic control measures proposed by this book.
Rational Expectations and Economic Policy
Author: Stanley Fischer
language: en
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Release Date: 2008-04-15
"Several areas in economics today have unprecedented significance and vitality. Most people would agree that stabilization policy ranks with the highest of these. Continuing inflation and periodic serious acceleration of inflation combined with high and secularly rising unemployment combine to give the area high priority. This book brings us up to date on an extremely lively discussion involving the role of expectations, and more particularly rational expectations, in the conduct of stabilization policy. . . . Anyone interested in the role of government in economics should read this important book."—C. Glyn Williams, The Wall Street Review of Books "This is a most timely and valuable contribution. . . . The contributors and commentators are highly distinguished and the editor has usefully collated comments and the ensuing discussion. Unusually for a conference proceedings the book is well indexed and it is also replete with numerous and up-to-date references. . . . This is the first serious book to examine the rational expectations thesis in any depth, and it will prove invaluable to anyone involved with macroeconomic policy generally and with monetary economics in particular."—G. K. Shaw, The Economic Journal
Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies
Author: Jongrim Ha
language: en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date: 2019-01-03
This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.