The Impact Of Conflict And Political Instability On Banking Crises In Developing Countries
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The Impact of Conflict and Political Instability on Banking Crises in Developing Countries
Author: Ali Compaoré
language: en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date: 2020-02-28
While there is an extensive literature examining the economic impact of conflict and political instability, surprisingly there have been few studies on their impact on the probability of banking crises. This paper therefore investigates whether rising conflict and political instability globally over the past several decades led to increased occurrence of banking crises in developing countries. The paper provides strong evidence that conflicts and political instability are indeed associated with higher probability of systemic banking crises. Unsurprisingly, the duration of a conflict is positively associated with rising probability of a banking crisis. Interestingly, the paper also finds that conflicts and political instability in one country can have negative spillover effects on neighboring countries’ banking systems. The paper provides evidence that the primary channel of transmission is the occurrence of fiscal crises following a conflict or political instability.
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"The relationships among competition in the financial sector, access of firms to external financing, and associated economic growth are ambiguous in theory. Moreover, measuring competition in the financial sector can be complex. In this paper Claessens and Laeven first estimate for 16 countries a measure of banking system competition based on industrial organization theory. They then relate this competition measure to growth of industries and find that greater competition in countries' banking systems allows financially dependent industries to grow faster. These results are robust under a variety of tests. The results suggest that the degree of competition is an important aspect of financial sector funding. This paper--a product of the Financial Sector Operations and Policy Department--is part of a larger effort in the department to study competition in banking"--World Bank web site.
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