The 2020 2022 Inflation Surge Across Europe A Phillips Curve Based Dissection
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The 2020-2022 Inflation Surge Across Europe: A Phillips-Curve-Based Dissection
Author: Chikako Baba
language: en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date: 2023-02-10
In 2021-22, inflation in Europe soared to multidecade highs, consistently exceeding policymakers’ forecasts and surprising with its wide cross-country dispersion. This paper analyzes the key drivers of the inflation surge in Europe and its variation across countries. The analysis highlights significant differences in Phillips curve parameters across Europe’s economies. Inflation is more sensitive to domestic slack and external price pressures in emerging European economies compared to their advanced counterparts, which contributed to a greater passthrough of global commodity price shocks into domestic prices, and, consequently, to larger increases in inflation rates. Across Europe, inflation also appears to have become increasingly backward looking and more sensitive to commodity price shocks since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. This finding helps explain why conventional (Phillips curve) inflation models consistently underpredicted the 2021-2022 inflation surge, although it remains too early to conclude there has been a structural break in the inflation process.
Has the Phillips Curve Become Steeper?
Author: Mr. Anil Ari
language: en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date: 2023-05-12
This paper analyzes whether structural changes in the aftermath of the pandemic have steepened the Phillips curves in advanced economies, reversing the flattening observed in recent decades and reducing the sacrifice ratio associated with disinflation. Particularly, analysis of granular price quote data from the UK indicates that increased digitalization may have raised price flexibility, while de-globalization may have made inflation more responsive to domestic economic conditions again. Using sectoral data from 24 advanced economies in Europe, higher digitalization and lower trade intensity are shown to be associated with steeper Phillips curves. Post-pandemic Phillips curve estimates indicate some steepening in the UK, Spain, Italy and the euro area as a whole, but at magnitudes that are too small to explain the entire surge in inflation in 2021–22, suggesting an important role for outward shifts in the Phillips curve.
The Irish Yearbook of International Law, Volume 16, 2021-2022
Author: Bríd Ní Ghráinne
language: en
Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing
Release Date: 2025-02-06
The Irish Yearbook of International Law supports research into Ireland's practice in international affairs and foreign policy, filling a gap in existing legal scholarship. This new volume covers the years 2021 and 2022, including global events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, Brexit fall-out, the Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan, a civil war in Ethiopia, protests in Iran, and Russia's unlawful invasion of Ukraine. Reports also cover topics on human rights in Ireland, the law of the sea, the exploitation of mineral resources of celestial bodies by private enterprises and the protection of the right to food, among others. Additionally, the book includes four book reviews covering a range of international law subjects, such as international economic law, colonialism and the protection of animals in armed conflict.