Superforecasting The Art And Science Of Prediction Reddit
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The Handover
Author: David Runciman
language: en
Publisher: Liveright Publishing
Release Date: 2023-11-14
“[W]itty and refined . . . Runciman’s point is that the alliance between even a democratic government and a safe-ish A.I. could derail civilization.” —Gideon Lewis-Kraus, New Yorker An eminent political thinker uses our history with states and corporations—“artificial agents” to which we have granted immense power—to predict how AI will remake society. Countless books, news reports, and opinion pieces have announced the impending arrival of artificial intelligence, with most claiming that it will upend our world, revolutionizing not just work but society overall. Yet according to political philosopher and historian David Runciman, we’ve actually been living with a version of AI for 300 years because states and corporations are robots, too. In The Handover, Runciman explains our current situation through the history of these “artificial agents” we created to rescue us from our all-too-human limitations—and demonstrates what this radical new view of our recent past means for our collective future. From the United States and the United Kingdom to the East India Company, Standard Oil, Facebook, and Alibaba, states and corporations have gradually, and then much more rapidly, taken over the planet. They have helped to conquer poverty and eliminate disease, but also unleashed global wars and environmental degradation. As Runciman demonstrates, states and corporations are the ultimate decision-making machines, defined by their ability to make their own choices and, crucially, to sustain the consequences of what has been chosen. And if the rapid spread of the modern state and corporation has already transformed the conditions of human existence, new AI technology promises the same. But what happens when AI interacts with other kinds of artificial agents, the inhuman kind represented by states and corporations? Runciman argues that the twenty-first century will be defined by increasingly intense battles between state and corporate power for the fruits of the AI revolution. In the end, it is not our own, human relationship with AI that will determine our future. Rather, humanity’s fate will be shaped by the interactions among states, corporations, and thinking machines. With clarity and verve, The Handover presents a brilliantly original history of the last three centuries and a new understanding of the immense challenges we now face.
零盲點思維
Author: 茱莉亞．蓋勒芙（Julia Galef）
language: zh-CN
Publisher: Common Wealth Magazine Ltd
Release Date: 2021-10-27
亞馬遜讀者好評、《華爾街日報》推薦書 限制判斷力的不是聰明才智，而是心態！ 養成「偵察心態」，讓你的判斷不被盲點綁架。 你面對別人的批評，第一反應是什麼？ 你曾用盡方法來證明自己是錯的嗎？ 你身旁有能對你誠實說反對、批評意見的人嗎？ 上面這幾個問題，你的回答是什麼？ 你是不是才猛然發現，原來自己很容易被盲點包圍，它深深影響我們每天的行為與抉擇。 本書作者茱莉亞．蓋勒芙（Julia Galef）是應用理性中心共同創辦人，同時也是一位人氣講者，她的TED演講「為什麼你會認為你是對的，儘管你是錯的」獲得熱烈回響，並以其中的核心觀點寫成了這本書。 蓋勒芙發現，我們內心認為親眼所見的就是事實和真相，這樣的心態限制了我們的判斷力，局限了我們對世界的認知、人生可發展的高度。但是，這種心態是可以改變的。 我們常會不小心陷入隧道視野，閉鎖認知，想相信的事，就找盡理由接受；不想相信的事，就設法找藉口拒絕相信。蓋勒芙稱此為「士兵心態」，著重防禦與自我保護，捍衛自己的觀點，堅信內心想要相信的事。 在本書中，蓋勒芙結合心理學、科學的研究與有趣的實例，發展出「偵察心態」，由好奇心驅使，著重觀察蒐證，依據事實畫出精確地圖，希望探知事物真相。這是一種任何人都能學會的情感技能、洞察習慣，以及看待世界的方式。 培養「偵察心態」、學會「零盲點思維」，我們就能把事情做得明智，人生過得明白。本書提供你許多靈活的工具及方法來練習，例如： ● 運用局外人測試等五種思考實驗，覺察出偏見隱藏在哪。 ● 意識到自己動機推論的傾向，避免非依據事實的論斷。 ● 利用判定確信程度的方法，看清事物，又能掌握不確定性。 ● 學會如何犯錯，不斷修正、更新自己的認知，讓判斷越來越精準。 ● 坦承自己的不確定，培養社交自信，從而每次都做出更好的選擇。 ● 認識身分認同對我們的影響，不受其約束，保持自己思維靈敏。 「偵察心態」幫助你改變慣性思維，對抗下意識偏見，提高個人判斷力，做出更理智的決斷！ 《零盲點思維》不只幫助一般人看清事實、辨析日常判斷、做對決策，對於想要提升推論力和決策力的職場工作者、企業主管，企圖避免做錯決定的人，以及對行為科學、心理學研究偏見影響人類決斷有興趣的人，書中建議的做法也都非常的實用、有效。 各界一致強推 朱家安｜作家、哲學雞蛋糕腦闆 吳億盼｜讀書e誌版主 徐慧玲｜聆韵企管顧問創辦人 陳沛穎｜臺中獨立書店 引書店店長 黃昭瑛｜KKday營銷長 鄭俊德｜閱讀人主編 亞當．格蘭特｜《反叛，改變世界的力量》作者 安妮．杜克｜《高勝算決策》作者） 提姆．哈福特｜《親愛的臥底經濟學家》作者 要做出合理判斷，人最大的敵人是自己。一本診斷情緒偏見、部落思維並且給出實用解決方案的書，我希望自己十年前就讀過。——朱家安│作家、哲學雞蛋糕腦闆 雖然改變自己的想法和觀點是如此的困難，只要轉換成「偵察兵」的思考模式，看見不同的可能性，突然之間就會變得不如想像的困難。而且只要願意保持更新的空間，時常刻意操練，不需要是最聰明的人，也可以擁有不錯的判斷能力。——吳億盼（讀書e誌版主） 在進行一項決策時，你通常是快狠準做出決定，還是猶豫不決，遲遲無法定論呢？本書將和你分享8個洞察習慣，帶著好奇心探索相關的人事物，改變只專注眼前現象的慣性，一起提升做「對」選擇的判斷力。──徐慧玲（聆韵企管顧問創辦人） 《零盲點思維》是本精巧好讀的書。它不用理論堆砌「思考如何正確」，而是用適切的比喻融合理論精神，陪伴讀者認識自己的「想法」從何而來？情緒或外在因素怎麼讓人「自欺欺人」？當我們察覺這些影響，我們會更有機會理解並面對現實，並長出行動與改變的力量。──陳沛穎（臺中獨立書店 引書店店長） 「你究竟是想找出答案，還是只想捍衛你的立場和你所相信的？」本書提醒我們要有偵察兵的思維，保持對知識與智慧追求的謙卑（intellectual humility），這都是新時代人才很重要的能力，因為學習力與工具、資訊都相差不大時，心態就是競爭力的關鍵。——黃昭瑛（KKday 營銷長） 我們需要閱讀這本書，它告訴我們別再自欺欺人，透過有意識的正確犯錯，將能幫助我們突破思維限制，往零盲點思維進化。——鄭俊德（閱讀人主編） 本書引人入勝、發人深省，我們都能從中受益。——《華爾街日報》 閱讀本書能教會你更清晰地思考，更準確地審視自己，同時減少犯錯的次數。——亞當．格蘭特（Adam Grant），《反叛，改變世界的力量》、《給予》作者 發人深省的原創作品，閱讀有樂趣。——提姆．哈福特（Tim Harford），《親愛的臥底經濟學家》作者 對於所有想要在決策上更理性的人來說，《零盲點思維》是必讀好書。——安妮．杜克（Annie Duke），《高勝算決策》作者 蓋勒芙是理性主義社群的知識領袖，你會在《零盲點思維》中發現一種引人入勝、清晰的文字精華，出自她在這些話題上積累的非常重要的智慧。——泰勒．柯文（Tyler Cowen），《企業的惡與善》、《大停滯》作者 自從我看了蓋勒芙的TED演講後，「偵察心態」的想法就一直留在我的腦海裡，它是一種鏡頭，一旦你透過它看事物，世界就會變得更有意義。——提姆．厄本（Tim Urban），Wait But Why網站共同創辦人 蓋勒芙診斷出我們為何思考不清晰的原因，並建議具體的方法來提高我們的理性。這是一本會真正改變你思考方式的書。——蕭恩．卡羅爾（Sean Carroll），《Something Deeply Hidden》作者 蓋勒芙是世界上最聰明、最有趣的思想家之一。如果你讀了這本極讚的書，你會想得更清楚，看得更清晰，成為一個更有智慧的人。——約翰．海利（Johann Hari），《照亮憂鬱黑洞的一束光》作者 蓋勒芙憑藉其對科學文獻和大眾文化的廣泛了解，探索人類自我欺騙的非凡能力，並向我們展示如何在自欺的行為中發現自己。——菲利浦．泰特洛克（Philip Tetlock），《超級預測》作者 《零盲點思維》提供一個深刻、有趣、真正有用的指導，讓我們思考更清晰。——唐．摩爾（Don Moore），《Perfectly Confident》作者
Superforecasting
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.