Stochastic Flood Forecasting System
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Floods and Landslides: Integrated Risk Assessment
Author: Riccardo Casale
language: en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date: 2012-12-06
Scientific reserach on natural disasters is now implementing new methodologies and aproaches as consequences of: 1. mutating impact of extreme natural events in response to societal change like land use, lifelines, communications, transportation, etc.; 2. development which claim for new urban and industrial territories, often in hazard prone areas; 3. impact of modern society on natural climate variability (climate change) and con sequently, on spatial and temporal frequency of extreme events related to hydro logical cycle. As consequence of the above mentioned items it is necessary to develop a global approach to territory in order to understand reciprocous influence between climate dynamics with their extreme consequences like floods and landslides and socio-eco nomic development. In such a way, and in response to societal change, scientific re search on floods and landslides is beginning to loose the classical mono disciplinary approach and it is starting to be a science of the hydrological processes. The course on "Floods and Landslides: integrated risk assessment" held in Orvieto (Italy) 19-26 may 1996, has been organised by the European Commission specifically with the aim of transferring to young European scientists these new views, in order to contribute to a future scientific community, capable to face with the future environ mental problems.
Stochastic Flood Forecasting System
This book presents the novel formulation and development of a Stochastic Flood Forecasting System, using the Middle River Vistula basin in Poland as a case study. The system has a modular structure, including models describing the rainfall-runoff and snow-melt processes for tributary catchments and the transformation of a flood wave within the reach. The sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the elements of the study system are performed at both the calibration and verification stages. The spatial and temporal variability of catchment land use and river flow regime based on analytical studies and measurements is presented. A lumped parameter approximation to the distributed modelling of river flow is developed for the purpose of flow forecasting. Control System based emulators (Hammerstein-Wiener models) are applied to on-line data assimilation. Medium-range probabilistic weather forecasts (ECMWF) and on-line observations of temperature, precipitation and water levels are used to prolong the forecast lead time. The potential end-users will also benefit from a description of social vulnerability to natural hazards in the study area.
Flash Flood Forecasting Over Complex Terrain
Author: National Research Council
language: en
Publisher: National Academies Press
Release Date: 2005-01-28
The nation's network of more than 130 Next Generation Radars (NEXRADs) is used to detect wind and precipitation to help National Weather Service forecasters monitor and predict flash floods and other storms. This book assesses the performance of the Sulphur Mountain NEXRAD in Southern California, which has been scrutinized for its ability to detect precipitation in the atmosphere below 6000 feet. The book finds that the Sulphur Mountain NEXRAD provides crucial coverage of the lower atmosphere and is appropriately situated to assist the Los Angeles-Oxnard National Weather Service Forecast Office in successfully forecasting and warning of flash floods. The book concludes that, in general, NEXRAD technology is effective in mountainous terrain but can be improved.