Statistical Reasoning With Imprecise Probabilities
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Statistical Reasoning with Imprecise Probabilities
An examination of topics involved in statistical reasoning with imprecise probabilities. The book discusses assessment and elicitation, extensions, envelopes and decisions, the importance of imprecision, conditional previsions and coherent statistical models.
Statistical Reasoning with Imprecise Probabilities
When I started writing this book, my mind was full of ignorance and uncertainty, particularly about how best to deal with ignorance and uncertainty. Much of the ignorance and uncertainty remains, now that the book is finished, but it is organized more coherently. I see that as progress. As the title indicates, the book is about methods of reasoning and statistical inference using imprecise probabilities. The methods are based on a behavioural interpretation of probability and principles of coherence. The idea for such a book originated in 1982, after I had written two long reports on the mathematics and elicitation of upper and lower probabilities. My experience in teaching and applying the existing theories of statistical inference had convinced me that each of them was inadequate. The Bayesian theory is inadequate, despite its great virtues of coherence, because it requires all probability assessments to be precise yet gives little guidance on how to make them. It seemed natural to investigate whether the Bayesian theory could be modified by admitting imprecise probabilities as models for partial ignorance. Is it possible to reconcile imprecision with coherence, vagueness with rationality? Fortunately the ans wer is yes! The basic ideas of the book appeared in the two technical reports (1981, 1982). The coherence principles for conditional probabilities and statistical models were worked out in New Zealand, in 1983.
Introduction to Imprecise Probabilities
In recent years, the theory has become widely accepted and has been further developed, but a detailed introduction is needed in order to make the material available and accessible to a wide audience. This will be the first book providing such an introduction, covering core theory and recent developments which can be applied to many application areas. All authors of individual chapters are leading researchers on the specific topics, assuring high quality and up-to-date contents. An Introduction to Imprecise Probabilities provides a comprehensive introduction to imprecise probabilities, including theory and applications reflecting the current state if the art. Each chapter is written by experts on the respective topics, including: Sets of desirable gambles; Coherent lower (conditional) previsions; Special cases and links to literature; Decision making; Graphical models; Classification; Reliability and risk assessment; Statistical inference; Structural judgments; Aspects of implementation (including elicitation and computation); Models in finance; Game-theoretic probability; Stochastic processes (including Markov chains); Engineering applications. Essential reading for researchers in academia, research institutes and other organizations, as well as practitioners engaged in areas such as risk analysis and engineering.