Recent Advances In Modeling And Forecasting Kaiyu
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Recent Advances in Modeling and Forecasting Kaiyu
This book is the first comprehensive presentation of a Kaiyu Markov model with covariates and a multivariate Poisson model with competitive destinations. These two models are core techniques when the authors and colleagues conduct their Kaiyu studies. The two models are usually used to forecast the effects of specific urban redevelopment on both the number of visitors and consumer shop-around or Kaiyu movements. Their Kaiyu studies originated from the constructions of a Kaiyu Markov model and the disaggregated hierarchical decision Huff model almost simultaneously around the early 1980s. This book retrospectively reviews how these models have evolved from the start to the present state, and previews the ongoing efforts to make further extensions of these models. The extension of the Huff model started from the disaggregated hierarchical decision Huff model with shop-arounds. In retrospect, the model formulated the consumer’s simultaneous choice of destinations as a joint probability. The mechanism to determine this joint probability was a recursive conditional probability system. Now the Huff model has shifted from joint probability to multivariate frequency Poisson with competitive destinations. On the other hand, the Kaiyu Markov model started from a descriptive model. Because it cannot forecast changes in shop-arounds or consumer Kaiyu behaviors, the Kaiyu Markov model with covariates was developed in which entrance and shop-around choice probabilities are explained by the respective two logit models with covariates such as distances and shop-floor areas. The noticeable point is that it can explain consumers’ probability of quitting their shop-arounds. Thus, the model enables one to evaluate the effects of urban revitalization policy that promotes consumers’ shop-arounds or Kaiyu behaviors. Furthermore, if the Kaiyu Markov model can estimate the actual numbers of flows of consumers’ shop-arounds among shopping sites, the corresponding money flows also can be estimated as economic effects. This book discusses from scratch the evolution of all these topics. Thus this book provides the basics of the Kaiyu Markov model, a tutorial for the theory and estimation of the conditional logit model, and a chapter serving as a practical research manual for forecasting changes caused by urban development based on consumers’ Kaiyu behaviors.
Advances in Kaiyu Studies
This book is the first systematic exposition of advances in Kaiyu studies carried out by the author and his colleagues in Japan and other parts of Asia. Consumer shop-around behavior is referred to as Kaiyu in Japanese, a term widely used in several fields such as city planning, marketing, real estate, tourism, and regional policy. The book demonstrates how Kaiyu research has evolved from the original idea to the present state and envisages prospective Kaiyu studies in the age of big data and the Internet of Things (IoT). The distinguishing feature of their research is that Kaiyu is regarded as consumers’ simultaneous decisions sequentially made while undertaking their shop-arounds as to which shops they visit, for what purpose, and how much they spend there. This is a sharp contrast to much research on trip chains, which only deal with spatial movements. As a result, their studies first succeeded in empirically exploring the relationships between consumer shop-around movements and money flows among shopping sites within a city center retail environment. As a result, the author and his coworkers uncovered the roles of many urban policies and facilities inexplicit so far by revealing how they contribute to the turnover of the whole town through stimulating Kaiyu. This gives a universal means of evaluation for urban development policy. Thus they have refreshed the scope of consumer shop-around studies from shop-around movements in the context of city planning, shopping marketing, and evaluation of urban revitalization policy, to town equity researches. This book presents step by step these conceptual developments by showing concrete research examples from their vast Kaiyu studies based on numerous empirical interview surveys at real retail environments.
Advances in Financial Planning and Forecasting (New Series) Vol．9
Author: Cheng F. Lee
language: en
Publisher: Center for PBBEFR & Ainosco Press
Release Date: 2018-01-01
Advances in Financial Planning and Froecasting (New Series) is an annual publication designed to disseminate developments in the area of financial analysis, planning, and forecasting. The publication is a froum for statistical, quantitative, and accounting analyses of issues in financial analysis and planning in terms of finance, accounting, and economic data.