Operational Forecasting Based On A Modified Weather Research And Forecasting Model
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Operational Forecasting Based on a Modified Weather Research and Forecasting Model
Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.
Air Pollution Modeling and its Application XXV
Current developments in air pollution modelling are explored as a series of contributions from researchers at the forefront of their field. This newest contribution on air pollution modelling and its application is focused on local, urban, regional and intercontinental modelling; long term modelling and trend analysis; data assimilation and air quality forecasting; model assessment and evaluation; aerosol transformation. Additionally, this work also examines the relationship between air quality and human health and the effects of climate change on air quality. This Work is a collection of selected papers presented at the 35th International Technical Meeting on Air Pollution Modeling and its Application, held in Chania (Crete), Greece, Oct 3-7, 2016. The book is intended as reference material for students and professors interested in air pollution modelling at the graduate level as well as researchers and professionals involved in developing and utilizing air pollution models.
Tropical Cyclone Modeling and Prediction: Advances in Model Development and Its Applications
Tropical cyclones (TCs) can cause billions of dollars in property damage and up to thousands of life losses globally every year. In order to mitigate these socioeconomic impacts, scientists have strived in developing sophisticated numerical modeling systems to provide better tools for research and forecast communities, especially in those coastal countries and regions that are impacted substantially by TCs in the past several decades. Recently, several accelerated efforts were made by several research and operational centers after tremendous property and life losses by landfall TCs in the North Atlantic, the Western North Pacific, and the North Indian Ocean basins. The modeling systems in regional forecast centers are planning to upgrade to the next generation or make significant advances through those accelerations. In this Research Topic, the goal is to document the latest developments, physics improvements, data assimilation, holistic forecast systems, and their applications. Themes include the significant model new features, high-resolution physics for TC applications, data assimilation methodology and observational data impacts, forecast experiments, model verification and validation. Studies on the role of physical processes associated with the boundary layer, convection and microphysics, radiation, land surface processes, air-sea-wave processes are encouraged. The model evaluations including quantitative precipitation forecasts and tools, and products for TC research and forecasts are welcome as well. Novel studies and latest model developments having a research to operation (R2O) transition possibility will be considered for publication. The ultimate goal is to exchange research ideas, advances, and understanding across the global TC communities. We welcome Original Research and Review Articles from development, observational, numerical modeling, and forecasting perspectives on TCs. Articles can include, but are not limited to, the following topics: • Model development; • TC vortex initialization algorithm; • High-resolution physics for TC; • Air-sea-wave interactions; • Model tracking and intensity verification; • Data assimilation methods; • Observational data impacts; • Model evaluation tools; • Model evaluation comparison products for research and forecasts; and • Novel studies based on new findings and methodology.