Numerical Analysis Of A Battle From History

Numerical Analysis of a Battle from History

Numerical Analysis of a Battle from History

A numerical method and computer programs for computing the probability of the outcomes of a type oof heterogeneous battle model can be found in AD-A129 468. The method requires the numbers of weapons involved, their relative effectiveness, and the loss levels at which victory is attained. In order to test the method and its applicability, Professor N H Gibbs, formerly Professor of the History of War at Oxford, was asked to provide suitable numerical data from historical battles. No restriction was placed on the period from which the battles might be taken. Data regarding three battles of the Hundred Years War was provided, namely Crecy, Poitier, and Agincourt. These battles were of a similar type. In all cases a smaller, well disciplined, and better armed force, in a good defensive position beat a much larger force. In this paper we consider the battle of Crecy. We give first an edited version of the material provided by Professor Gibbs. We then consider the choice of appropriate attrition functions. Some examples of the computed results are given.

Operation Barbarossa: the Complete Organisational and Statistical Analysis, and Military Simulation Volume I

In June 1941 the Wehrmacht launched Operation Barbarossa: the attack on the USSR and the largest land invasion in recorded history. Operation Barbarossa: the Complete Organisational and Statistical Analysis, and Military Simulation focuses on 1941 - when the USSR came closest to defeat. It includes full analyses of the belligerents' armed forces, weapons, equipment, personnel, transport, logistics, war-production, mobilisation and replacements. The work employs a unique military simulation methodology, extending from the tactical to the strategic level, and applies this methodology to each of the belligerents. Volume I, the first of six volumes, is primarily concerned with the structure of this methodology, but uses many of the events and weapons from Operation Barbarossa as illustrative case studies. The complete work represents the most historically accurate, advanced and comprehensive analysis of the first six months of the largest and most decisive military campaign of WWII.