Navigating Uncertainty Using Foresight Intelligence
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Navigating Uncertainty Using Foresight Intelligence
This book brings together a diverse range of findings on current and emerging business concerns when the authors were developing a series of 12 working Analytic Research Consortium (ARC) White Papers. It presents several, differently configured scenarios, drawing on cyber as an example; the use and further optimization of estimative/probabilistic language; communicating analytical insights and other findings concerning ‘(un)certainty’ to decision-maker end-users; and mitigating risk. It also evaluates in detail today’s rapidly evolving Gen-AI systems and technologies, e.g. those underlying OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Google’s Bard/Gemini. This includes their respective value concerning scenario development and other business-relevant methods, tools and techniques, e.g. ‘Red Teaming’. The topics discussed are assessed using the multi-methodologies of, firstly, ‘Intelligence Engineering’ (IE) and, secondly, ‘Strategic Options Analysis’ (SOA). The latter half of the book introduces an alternative scenario planning process, including use of new computer-software and AI tools. In addition to Gen-AI, we identify that the emerging discipline of Causal AI may work better for foresight and scenario activities. The book is a valuable read for a diverse readership from the public and private sectors, spanning government, the military, law enforcement, education, industry, commerce, retail, and enterprises of all sizes. Also, students at business schools and high-level decision-makers, including politicians, military commanders, and C-Suite leaders in various fields, will benefit from it.
Contextual Intelligence
This book presents a structured framework for decision-making and leadership in turbulent environments, focusing on the Three-Dimensional (3D) Thinking Framework™—the use of hindsight, insight, and foresight—to navigate complexity. Contextual intelligence helps readers respond to rapid changes in organizational and personal settings. Dr. Kutz’s 3D Thinking Framework™ and R4 Process™ (recognize, reorder, respond, reflect) integrate past insights, present intuition, and future aspirations into problem-solving strategies. Kutz simplifies complex concepts like VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity), synchronicity, and tacit knowledge into actionable insights. This updated edition offers expanded content, practical examples, and new chapters on behaviors linked to contextual intelligence, enhancing 3D thinking. Full of cases and anecdotes, each chapter concludes with critical thinking questions and tools to assess and enhance contextual intelligence, guiding leaders in mastering complexity and leading with confidence.
Evidence as a catalyst for policy and societal change
Author: World Health Organization
language: en
Publisher: World Health Organization
Release Date: 2025-04-24
This is the meeting report of the WHO Global Evidence-to-Policy (E2P) Summit 2023. As a follow up to the WHO Global Evidence-to- Policy (E2P) Summit 2021, the 2023 E2P Summit convened virtually. Political leaders, funders and health, policy and communications experts from around the world met from 29 to 31 August 2023. Four themes guided the three-day 2023 E2P Summit: 1. evidence ecosystems, collaboration and partnerships; 2. citizen engagement: enhancing trust in science; 3. institutionalization of evidence-informed policy-making; and 4. unlocking the potential of artificial intelligence and foresight studies. The 2023 E2P Summit provided an opportunity for the E2P community to gather, for the first time, alongside funders, to discuss innovative topics critical to the advancement of the EVIPNet Call for Action, which aims to strengthen evidence-informed decision-making (EIDM) efforts at country, regional and global levels. Building on the 2021 E2P Summit, speakers, panelists and participants provided additional insights on how to advance EIDM in different contexts and settings. Participants showed strong support for a Coalition of Partners that could bring together evidence producers, intermediaries and users and scale up EIDM institutionalization. The Coalition would help to build capacity for gathering and synthesizing evidence across communities, to advance EIDM according to the commitments expressed at the 2023 E2P Summit.