Managing Complexity Practical Considerations In The Development And Application Of Abms To Contemporary Policy Challenges
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Managing Complexity: Practical Considerations in the Development and Application of ABMs to Contemporary Policy Challenges
This book emerged out of a project initiated and funded by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) that sought to build on efforts to transform agent-based models into platforms for predicting and evaluating policy responses to real world challenges around the world. It began with the observation that social science theories of human behavior are often used to estimate the consequences of alternative policy responses to important issues and challenges. However, alternative theories that remain subject to contradictory claims are ill suited to inform policy. The vision behind the DARPA project was to mine the social sciences literature for alternative theories of human behavior, and then formalize, instantiate, and integrate them within the context of an agent-based modeling system. The research team developed an experimental platform to evaluate the conditions under which alternative theories and groups of theories applied. The end result was a proof of concept developed from the ground up of social knowledge that could be used as an informative guide for policy analysis. This book describes in detail the process of designing and implementing a pilot system that helped DARPA assess the feasibility of a computational social science project on a large scale.
Complex Adaptive Systems
This book emerged out of international conferences organized as part of the AAAI Fall Symposia series, and the Swarmfest 2017 conference. It brings together researchers from diverse fields studying these complex systems using CAS and agent-based modeling tools and techniques. In the past, the knowledge gained in each domain has largely remained exclusive to that domain. By bringing together scholars who study these phenomena, the book takes knowledge from one domain to provide insight into others. Most interesting phenomena in natural and social systems include constant transitions and oscillations among their various phases – wars, companies, societies, markets, and humans rarely stay in a stable, predictable state for long. Randomness, power laws, and human behavior ensure that the future is both unknown and challenging. How do events unfold? When do they take hold? Why do some initial events cause an avalanche while others do not? What characterizes these events? What are the thresholds that differentiate a sea change from a non-event? Complex adaptive systems (CAS) have proven to be a powerful tool for exploring these and other related phenomena. The authors characterize a general CAS model as having a large number of self-similar agents that: 1) utilize one or more levels of feedback; 2) exhibit emergent properties and self-organization; and 3) produce non-linear dynamic behavior. Advances in modeling and computing technology have led not only to a deeper understanding of complex systems in many areas, but they have also raised the possibility that similar fundamental principles may be at work across these systems, even though the underlying principles may manifest themselves differently.
Advanced Technologies, Systems, and Applications II
This book presents innovative and interdisciplinary applications of advanced technologies. It includes the scientific outcomes of the 9th DAYS OF BHAAAS (Bosnian-Herzegovinian American Academy of Arts and Sciences) held in Banja Vrućica, Teslić, Bosnia and Herzegovina on May 25–28, 2017. This unique book offers a comprehensive, multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary overview of the latest developments in a broad section of technologies and methodologies, viewed through the prism of applications in computing, networking, information technology, robotics, complex systems, communications, energy, mechanical engineering, economics and medicine, to name just a few.