How Nations Become Fragile An Ai Augmented Bird S Eye View With A Case Study Of South Sudan
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How Nations Become Fragile: An AI-Augmented Bird’s-Eye View (with a Case Study of South Sudan)
Author: Tohid Atashbar
language: en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date: 2023-08-11
In this study we introduce and apply a set of machine learning and artificial intelligence techniques to analyze multi-dimensional fragility-related data. Our analysis of the fragility data collected by the OECD for its States of Fragility index showed that the use of such techniques could provide further insights into the non-linear relationships and diverse drivers of state fragility, highlighting the importance of a nuanced and context-specific approach to understanding and addressing this multi-aspect issue. We also applied the methodology used in this paper to South Sudan, one of the most fragile countries in the world to analyze the dynamics behind the different aspects of fragility over time. The results could be used to improve the Fund’s country engagement strategy (CES) and efforts at the country.
Republic of South Sudan
Author: International Monetary
language: en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date: 2024-06-10
South Sudan is a very fragile post-conflict country, and one of the most vulnerable in the world to climate change effects. The spillovers from the fighting in Sudan have exacerbated an already dire humanitarian situation. Two-thirds of South Sudan’s population was exposed to acute food insecurity prior to the outbreak of the conflict in Sudan and the situation has worsened due to a large and growing number of refugees, and a sharp increase in fuel and food prices in the border areas with Sudan driven by trade disruptions. The Sudan war has also delayed the needed repair of the pipeline that transports South Sudan’s crude oil to international markets through Sudan. As a result, oil exports have since mid-February 2024 collapsed to about one-third of their previous level. This has increased significantly the fiscal financing and balance of payments gaps given that oil exports account for nearly 90 percent of fiscal revenues and 95 percent of exports. National elections, the first-ever since South Sudan’s independence in 2011, are scheduled for December 2024. However, due to delays in and operationalizing key election-related institutions development partners have expressed skepticism that free and fair elections will be feasible by the envisaged date.
Digital Humanitarians
The overflow of information generated during disasters can be as paralyzing to humanitarian response as the lack of information. This flash flood of information‘social media, satellite imagery and more is often referred to as Big Data. Making sense of this data deluge during disasters is proving an impossible challenge for traditional humanitarian