Handbook For Integrating Risk Analysis In The Economic Analysis Of Projects
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Handbook for Integrating Risk Analysis in the Economic Analysis of Projects
Aiming to support the development of a framework for the analysis of risk in project design and economic analysis, this handbook outlines technical approaches to modeling risk. Also summarized is the nature and practice of sensitivity analysis in dealing with uncertain outcomes as well as the principles to consider in typical risk analysis situations sector by sector. Case studies are included to demonstrate the application of quantitative risk analysis using actual Asian Development Bank projects to help improve project design and quality. Handbook users will learn to identify factors that are the key determinants of project outcomes, determine the likelihood of an individual project's returns being unacceptable, and design measures to mitigate the risks arising from the identified key factors.
Applied Welfare Economics
What is the effect of a new infrastructure on the well-being of a local community? Is a tax reform desirable? Does the privatization of a telecommunication provider increase social welfare? To answer these questions governments and their policy advisors should have in mind an operative definition of social welfare, and cannot rely on simple official statistics, such as GDP. The price we observe are often misleading as welfare signals, and costs and benefits for the society should be based on ‘shadow prices’, revealing the social opportunity costs of goods and of changes of the world. This book explains how to apply these welfare economics ideas to the real world. After a theoretical discussion of the concept of social welfare, a critical analysis of the traditional doctrine of welfare economics embodied in the Two Fundamental Theorems, and a presentation of social cost-benefit analysis, the book introduce the readers to an applied framework. This includes the empirical estimation of shadow prices of goods, of the social cost of labour and capital, the assessment of risk. This book also includes the state of the art of international experience with CBA, including ex-post evaluation of major projects, economic rates of return in different sectors, and a case study on privatisation, is presented. This book offers a unique and original blend of theory, empirics and experience. The theoretical discussion clarifies why shadow prices are not virtual market equilibrium prices, as they arise as the solution of a planning problem, often with governments and economic agents constrained in their information and powers. The empirical chapters show how to compute proxies of the shadow prices in simple ways. The experience chapters draw from first hand research, gained by the Author and his collaborators over many years of advisory work for the European Commission and other international and national institutions.
Current Issues in Project Analysis for Development
Author: John Weiss
language: en
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Release Date: 2012-01-01
For over fifty years project analysis techniques have been applied in the assessment of development projects where poorly designed and appraised projects can waste scarce resources. This study examines the continued relevance of this approach, assesses methodological developments over this period and investigates current practical problems in the application of these techniques. This major work brings together authors with experience of both academic and operational project work to focus on issues such as the shadow exchange rate, the shadow wage, the discount rate and assessment of poverty impact and risk, as well as problems relating to specific sectors covering environmental projects, transport, education and health. There are also general chapters on the experience of semi-input–output-based estimation of shadow prices and the relevance of shadow pricing techniques to the context of developed economies in the EU. An overview by the editors sets out the evolution of the literature and highlights current issues. The general conclusion is that project analysis techniques remain relevant, albeit within a very different development context to that in which they were originally envisaged to be applied. With new perspectives on key economic parameters, this book will appeal to academics working on development, officials involved with project aid programmes, postgraduate students of development and professional economists working on development projects.