Growth Spillover Dynamics From Crisis To Recovery
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Growth Spillover Dynamics From Crisis to Recovery
Author: Ms.Helene Poirson Ward
language: en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date: 2011-09-01
Can positive growth shocks from the faster-growing countries in Europe spill over to the slower growing countries, providing useful tailwinds to their recovery process? This study investigates the potential relevance of growth spillovers in the context of the crisis and the recovery process. Based on a VAR framework, our analysis suggests that the U.S. and Japan remain the key source of growth spillovers in this recovery, with France also playing an important role for the European crisis countries. Notwithstanding the current export-led cyclical upswing, Germany generates relatively small outward spillovers compared to other systemic countries, but likely plays a key role in transmitting and amplifying external growth shocks to the rest of Europe given its more direct exposure to foreign shocks compared to other European countries. Positive spillovers from Spain were important prior to the 2008 - 09 crisis, however Spain is generating negative spillovers in this recovery due to a depressed domestic demand. Negative spillovers from the European crisis countries appear limited, consistent with their modest size.
Growth Spillover Dynamics from Crisis to Recovery
Examines whether positive growth impulses from the faster-growing countries in Europe can spill over to the slower growing countries. Investigates the relevance of such potential growth spillovers and seeks to identify the countries most likely to serve as "growth leaders." Examines, in particular, the extent to which Germany's current upswing may spill over to other countries and accelerate recovery elsewhere.
Global Growth and Financial Spillovers and the South African Macro-economy
To what extent is South Africa affected by G8 economies and BRIC growth shocks? This book identifies channels that amplify these shock effects, the relevance of third country transmission effects and the effects of the first and second rounds of US quantitative easing. The changing reactions of South African variables over time to financial shocks emanating from the US and selected countries in the Euro area, is presented. The book quantifies the effects of capital flow shocks, determines the counterfactuals of asset prices and economic growth variables, and compares the contribution of capital flows and domestic macro factors on asset prices. The effects of the exchange rate depreciation are contrasted to the decline in investment as key drivers of the trade balance. Stock market interdependence is determined amongst South African, Indian and Brazilian equities. The contributions of stock price returns and volatility on South African economic growth are contrasted. The authors construct a financial stress index for South Africa and determine how it amplifies shocks.