Geopolitical Alpha An Investment Framework For Predicting The Future Pdf
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Geopolitical Alpha
Forecast geopolitics and markets with this clear and insightful resource Geopolitical Alpha – An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future provides readers with an original and compelling approach to forecasting the future and beating the markets while doing so. Persuasively written by author, investment strategist, and geopolitical analyst Marko Papic, the book applies a novel framework for making sense of the cacophony of geopolitical risks with the eye towards generating investment-relevant insights. Geopolitical Alpha posits that investors should ignore the media-hyped narratives, insights from "smoke-filled rooms," and most of their political consultants and, instead, focus exclusively on the measurable, material constraints facing policymakers. In the tug-of-war between policymaker preferences and their constraints, the latter always win out in the end. Papic uses a wealth of examples from the past decade to illustrate how one can use his constraint-framework to generate Geopolitical Alpha. In the process, the book discusses: What paradigm shifts will drive investment returns over the next decade Why investment and corporate professionals can no longer treat geopolitics as an exogenous risk How to ignore the media and focus on what drives market narratives that generate returns Perfect for investors, C-suite executives, and investment professionals, Geopolitical Alpha belongs on the shelf of anyone interested in the intersection of geopolitics, economics, and finance.
Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms
Author: Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak
language: en
Publisher: Harvard Business Press
Release Date: 2024-07-09
An essential new guide to navigating macroeconomic risk. The shocks and crises of recent years—pandemic, recession, inflation, war—have forced executives and investors to recognize that the macroeconomy is now a risk to be actively managed. Yet unreliable forecasting, pervasive doomsaying, and whipsawing data severely hamper the task of decoding the landscape. Are disruptions transient and ephemeral—or permanent and structural? False alarms are costly traps, but so are true structural changes that go undetected. How can leaders avoid these macro traps to make better tactical and strategic decisions? In this perspective-shifting book, BCG Chief Economist Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak and Senior Economist Paul Swartz provide a fresh and accessible way to assess macroeconomic risk. Casting doubt on conventional model-based thinking, they demonstrate a more powerful approach to building sound macroeconomic judgment. Using incisive analysis built upon frameworks, historical context, and structural narratives—what they call "economic eclecticism"—the book empowers readers with the durable skills to assess continuously evolving risks in the real economy, the financial system, and the geopolitical arena. Moreover, the authors' more nuanced approach reveals that the all-too-common narratives of economic collapse and decline are often false alarms themselves, while the fundamental strengths of our current "era of tightness" become visible. With rational optimism rather than gloom, Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms speaks to the key financial and macroeconomic controversies that define our times—and provides a compass for navigating the global economy. Rather than relying on blinking dashboards or flashy headlines, leaders can and should judge macroeconomic risks for themselves.
Summary of Marko Papic & Steven Drobny's Geopolitical Alpha
Author: Everest Media,
language: en
Publisher: Everest Media LLC
Release Date: 2022-04-05T22:59:00Z
Please note: This is a companion version & not the original book. Sample Book Insights: #1 The world is undergoing paradigm shifts on multiple fronts: political, geopolitical, generational, and technological. What these changes are and their implications for the future are beyond the scope of this book. #2 In 1986, my father joined General Export, a conglomerate that controlled 12 to 13 percent of Yugoslav foreign trade and nearly a third of Serbian trade with the rest of the world. The company was based on pure geopolitical alpha. But when the Soviet Union collapsed, so did Genex’s entire corporate strategy. #3 The same can be said for investors. The training, certifications, and experience they gained during the past 35 years have woefully underprepared investors for the geopolitical paradigm shifts occurring. #4 Politics and geopolitics have long played a role in investment and business decisions, and have done so for centuries. However, today the curricula of most MBA programs and the CFA curriculum ignore these factors.