Facts Frameworks And Forecasts
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Facts, Frameworks, and Forecasts
"Facts, Frameworks, and Forecasts calls for rethinking the development of criminological theory. In her introduction, Joan McCord argues that the field is ready for new approaches and that its progress depends on a sound factual base. Examining the discipline's research design, methodology, and quantitative analysis efforts, the contributors identify significant advances in criminological theory. This empirical orientation results in a balanced blend of information and speculation. This book contains a comprehensive review. The first chapter describes biological conditions that have theoretical links with criminal behavior--ending with a discussion of how biological and social conditions may interact to influence criminal behavior. Early chapters discuss general issues related to crime. These are followed by expositions of theoretical orientations not typically found in criminological literature. The second half of the book describes seven longitudinal studies in four countries. The authors interpret their data to expose biological, social, and psychological factors they believe may influence criminal behavior. These contributors include: Guenther Knoblich and Roy King, Daniel Glaser, Robert A. Rosellini and Robin L. Lashley, Robert J. Sampson, Ellen S. Cohn and Susan O. White, Joan McCord, L. Rowell Huesmann and Leonard D. Eron, Robert Cairns and Beverly Cairns, Richard E. Tremblay, Patricia Cohen and Judith S. Brook, David P. Farrington and David Magnussen, Britt af Klinteberg, and Hakan Stattin. Facts, Frameworks, and Forecasts addresses the observation of noted criminologist Marvin Wolfgang that criminological theory had stagnated. This groundbreaking work, available in paperback for the first time, is as relevant now as when first published. It should be read by all concerned with data-related approaches to criminology."--Publisher's website.
Facts, Frameworks, and Forecasts
Facts, Frameworks, and Forecasts calls for rethinking the development of criminological theory. In her introduction, Joan McCord argues that the field is ready for new approaches and that its progress depends on a sound factual base. Examining the discipline's research design, methodology, and quantitative analysis efforts, the contributors identify significant advances in criminological theory. This empirical orientation results in a balanced blend of information and speculation. This book contains a comprehensive review. The first chapter describes biological conditions that have theoretical links with criminal behavior—ending with a discussion of how biological and social conditions may interact to influence criminal behavior. Early chapters discuss general issues related to crime. These are followed by expositions of theoretical orientations not typically found in criminological literature. The second half of the book describes seven longitudinal studies in four countries. The authors interpret their data to expose biological, social, and psychological factors they believe may influence criminal behavior. These contributors include: Guenther Knoblich and Roy King, Daniel Glaser, Robert A. Rosellini and Robin L. Lashley, Robert J. Sampson, Ellen S. Cohn and Susan O. White, Joan McCord, L. Rowell Huesmann and Leonard D. Eron, Robert Cairns and Beverly Cairns, Richard E. Tremblay, Patricia Cohen and Judith S. Brook, David P. Farrington and David Magnussen, Britt af Klinteberg, and Hakan Stattin. Facts, Frameworks, and Forecasts addresses the observation of noted criminologist Marvin Wolfgang that criminological theory had stagnated. This groundbreaking work, available in paperback for the first time, is as relevant now as when first published. It should be read by all concerned with data-related approaches to criminology.
Information Rigidities in Economic Growth Forecasts
Author: Jonas Dovern
language: en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date: 2013-02-27
We examine the behavior of forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 30 advanced and emerging economies during 1989–2010. Our main findings are as follows. First, our evidence does not support the validity of the sticky information model (Mankiw and Reis, 2002) for describing the dynamics of professional growth forecasts. Instead, the empirical evidence is more in line with implications of "noisy" information models (Woodford, 2002; Sims, 2003). Second, we find that information rigidities are more pronounced in emerging economies than advanced economies. Third, there is evidence of nonlinearities in forecast smoothing. It is less pronounced in the tails of the distribution of individual forecast revisions than in the central part of the distribution.