Expected And Predicted Realignments
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Realignment Expectations, Forward Rate Bias, and Sterilized Intervention in an Adjustable Peg Exchange Rate Model with Policy Optimization
Author: Mr.Peter Isard
language: en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date: 1994-02-01
The paper models an adjustable peg exchange rate arrangement as a policy rule with an escape clause under which the timing and magnitudes of realignments are the outcomes of policy optimization decisions. Under the assumptions that market participants are rational, risk averse, and fully informed about the incentives of policymakers, the analysis focuses on the implications for relating realignment expectations to the state variables that enter the policy objective function, for modeling the bias in using forward exchange rates to predict future spot rates, and for characterizing the effectiveness of sterilized intervention.
Academic Writing
Author: Eija Ventola
language: en
Publisher: John Benjamins Publishing
Release Date: 1996-03-15
Writing is crucial to the academic world. It is the main mode of communication among scientists and scholars and also a means for students for obtaining their degrees. The papers in this volume highlight the intercultural, generic and textual complexities of academic writing. Comparisons are made between various traditions of academic writing in different cultures and contexts and the studies combine linguistic analyses with analyses of the social settings in which academic writing takes place and is acquired. The common denominator for the papers is writing in English and attention is given to native-English writers’ and non-native writers’ problems in different disciplines. The articles in the book introduce a variety of methodological approaches for analyses and search for better teaching methods and ways of improving the syllabi of writing curricula. The book as a whole illustrates how linguists strive for new research methods and practical applications in applied linguistics.
The Determinants of Realignment Expectations Under the EMS
The stability of the EMS depends crucially on realignment expectations of the market participants. In this paper we discuss how to measure such expectations and how to relate them to economic fundamentals, central bank reputation, and institutional arrangements of the EMS. We find the following empirical regularities for FF/DM and IL/DM exchange rates: (1) expected devaluations are positively related to the current exchange rate deviation from the central parity; (2) expected devaluations are negatively related to the length of time since last realignment in the short and medium run; (3) the Basle-Nyborg agreements seem to have a stabilizing effect for both currencies examined, albeit through different channels; (4) large revaluation expectations occur immediately after devaluations. (1) and (4) are not inconsistent with the hypothesis of over-speculation or market inefficiency.