Exiting The Fragility Trap
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Exiting the Fragility Trap
Author: David Carment
language: en
Publisher: Ohio University Press
Release Date: 2019-10-15
State fragility is a much-debated yet underinvestigated concept in the development and international security worlds. Based on years of research as part of the Country Indicators for Foreign Policy project at Carleton University, Exiting the Fragility Trap marks a major step toward remedying the lack of research into the so-called fragility trap. In examining the nature and dynamics of state transitions in fragile contexts, with a special emphasis on states that are trapped in fragility, David Carment and Yiagadeesen Samy ask three questions: Why do some states remain stuck in a fragility trap? What lessons can we learn from those states that have successfully transitioned from fragility to stability and resilience? And how can third-party interventions support fragile state transitions toward resilience? Carment and Samy consider fragility’s evolution in three state types: countries that are trapped, countries that move in and out of fragility, and countries that have exited fragility. Large-sample empirical analysis and six comparative case studies—Pakistan and Yemen (trapped countries), Mali and Laos (in-and-out countries), and Bangladesh and Mozambique (exited countries)—drive their investigation, which breaks ground toward a new understanding of why some countries fail to see sustained progress over time.
Avoid a Fall Or Fly Again: Turning Points of State Fragility
Author: Olusegun Ayodele Akanbi
language: en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date: 2021-05-06
High persistence of state fragility (a fragility trap) suggests the presence of substantial benefits from avoiding a fall into fragility and considerable hurdles to successful exit from fragility. This paper empirically examines the factors that affect the turning points of entering and exiting from state fragility by employing three different approaches: an event study, the synthetic control method, and a logit model. We find that avoiding economic contraction is critical to prevent a country on the brink of fragility from falling into fragility (e.g., among near fragile countries, the probability of entering fragility would rise by 40 percentage points should real GDP per capita growth decline from +2.5 percent to -2.5 percent). Also, strengthening government effectiveness together with increasing political inclusion and maintaining robust economic activity should help make exit from fragility more successful and sustainable. In the current environment (the COVID-19 crisis and its aftermath), the findings suggest the importance of providing well-directed fiscal stimulus with sufficient financing, (subject to appropriate governance safeguards and well-designed policies), and protecting critical socio-economic spending to keep vulnerable countries away from being caught in a fragility trap.
Haiti
Author: International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
language: en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date: 2025-04-09
The Governance Diagnostic (GD) Report is prepared by IMF staff at the request of the Haitian authorities. Informed by political economy analysis, the GD discusses the nature and severity of corruption, its relevance to Haiti’s fragility, and its impact on the anti-corruption, anti-money laundering frameworks and the rule of law (especially judicial integrity). It also discusses governance weaknesses and corruption vulnerabilities in the fiscal governance and financial sector oversight. These governance weaknesses and vulnerabilities appear in the context of endemic violence that has undermined the legitimacy of state institutions. The GD Report proposes a set of time-bound reform measures aimed at strengthening economic governance, rule of law and reducing corruption vulnerabilities.