Continuous Reservoir Simulation Model Updating And Forecasting Using A Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method
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Continuous Reservoir Simulation Model Updating and Forecasting Using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method
Currently, effective reservoir management systems play a very important part in exploiting reservoirs. Fully exploiting all the possible events for a petroleum reservoir is a challenge because of the infinite combinations of reservoir parameters. There is much unknown about the underlying reservoir model, which has many uncertain parameters. MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) is a more statistically rigorous sampling method, with a stronger theoretical base than other methods. The performance of the MCMC method on a high dimensional problem is a timely topic in the statistics field. This thesis suggests a way to quantify uncertainty for high dimensional problems by using the MCMC sampling process under the Bayesian frame. Based on the improved method, this thesis reports a new approach in the use of the continuous MCMC method for automatic history matching. The assimilation of the data in a continuous process is done sequentially rather than simultaneously. In addition, by doing a continuous process, the MCMC method becomes more applicable for the industry. Long periods of time to run just one realization will no longer be a big problem during the sampling process. In addition, newly observed data will be considered once it is available, leading to a better estimate. The PUNQ-S3 reservoir model is used to test two methods in this thesis. The methods are: STATIC (traditional) SIMULATION PROCESS and CONTINUOUS SIMULATION PROCESS. The continuous process provides continuously updated probabilistic forecasts of well and reservoir performance, accessible at any time. It can be used to optimize long-term reservoir performance at field scale.
Soft Computing for Reservoir Characterization and Modeling
In the middle of the 20th century, Genrich Altshuller, a Russian engineer, analysed hundreds of thousands of patents and scientific publications. From this analysis, he developed TRIZ (G. Altshuller, "40 Principles: TRIZ Keys to Technical Innovation. TRIZ Tools," Volume 1, First Edition, Technical Innovation Center, Inc. , Worcester, MA, January 1998; Y. Salamatov, "TRIZ: The Right Solution at the Right Time. A Guide to Innovative Problem Solving. " Insytec B. V. , 1999), the theory of inventive problem solving, together with a series of practical tools for helping engineers solving technical problems. Among these tools and theories, the substance-field theory gives a structured way of representing problems, the patterns of evolution show the lifecycle of technical systems, the contradiction matrix tells you how to resolve technical contradictions, using the forty principles that describe common ways of improving technical systems. For example, if you want to increase the strength of a device, without adding too much extra weight to it, the contradiction matrix tells you that you can use "Principle 1: Segmentation," or "Principle 8: Counterweight," or "Principle 15: Dynamicity," or "Principle 40: Composite Materials. " I really like two particular ones: "Principle 1: Segmentation," and Principle 15: Dynamicity. " "Segmentation" shows how systems evolve from an initial monolithic form into a set of independent parts, then eventually increasing the number of parts until each part becomes small enough that it cannot be identified anymore.
Assessing the Reliability of Complex Models
Author: National Research Council
language: en
Publisher: National Academies Press
Release Date: 2012-07-26
Advances in computing hardware and algorithms have dramatically improved the ability to simulate complex processes computationally. Today's simulation capabilities offer the prospect of addressing questions that in the past could be addressed only by resource-intensive experimentation, if at all. Assessing the Reliability of Complex Models recognizes the ubiquity of uncertainty in computational estimates of reality and the necessity for its quantification. As computational science and engineering have matured, the process of quantifying or bounding uncertainties in a computational estimate of a physical quality of interest has evolved into a small set of interdependent tasks: verification, validation, and uncertainty of quantification (VVUQ). In recognition of the increasing importance of computational simulation and the increasing need to assess uncertainties in computational results, the National Research Council was asked to study the mathematical foundations of VVUQ and to recommend steps that will ultimately lead to improved processes. Assessing the Reliability of Complex Models discusses changes in education of professionals and dissemination of information that should enhance the ability of future VVUQ practitioners to improve and properly apply VVUQ methodologies to difficult problems, enhance the ability of VVUQ customers to understand VVUQ results and use them to make informed decisions, and enhance the ability of all VVUQ stakeholders to communicate with each other. This report is an essential resource for all decision and policy makers in the field, students, stakeholders, UQ experts, and VVUQ educators and practitioners.