Climate Change And Hunger Estimating Costs Of Adaptation In The Agrifood System
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Climate change and hunger: Estimating costs of adaptation in the agrifood system
Author: Sulser, Timothy
language: en
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Release Date: 2021-06-16
This report assesses the cost of adaptation to climate change across a range of future climate scenarios and investment options. We focus on offsetting climate change impacts on hunger through investment in agricultural research, water management, and rural infrastructure in developing countries. We link climate, crop, water, and economic models to (1) analyze scenarios of future change in the agriculture sector to 2050 and (2) assess trade-offs for these investments across key Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for poverty, hunger, and water. Our reference projections show that climate change slows progress toward eliminating hunger, with an additional 78 million people facing chronic hunger in 2050 relative to a no-climate-change future, over half of them in Africa south of the Sahara. Increased investments can offset these impacts. Achieving this would require that annual investment in international agricultural research increase from US$1.62 billion to US$2.77 billion per year between 2015 and 2050. Additional water and infrastructure investments are estimated to be more expensive than agricultural R&D at about US$12.7 billion and US$10.8 billion per year, respectively, but these address key gaps to support transformation toward food system resiliency. Findings on ranges of costs and trade-offs and complementarities across SDGs will help policymakers make better-informed choices between alternative investment strategies.
What do we know about the future of food systems?
Author: Wiebe, Keith D.
language: en
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Release Date: 2025-07-21
Food systems have achieved remarkable progress in recent decades, but moving forward, they will face significant challenges in delivering the many outputs and services we expect and need. This book presents a collection of short chapters on the current state of knowledge about different aspects of the future of food systems, written by a diverse group of scientists from around the world with expertise in a wide range of related disciplines and regions. Each chapter examines a particular aspect of food systems, describes recent trends and challenges that highlight the importance of the topic, summarizes the latest available foresight research on that topic, and identifies key gaps in existing foresight research that merit further attention. In a world of complexity and uncertainty, the goal of this book — and the purpose of foresight analysis, more generally — is not to predict the future with precision, but rather to carefully consider and present what can be known about possible future pathways in order to inform choices today. The collection includes 15 chapters focused on major drivers and impacts of change in food systems, 11 chapters that provide regional and national perspectives on the future of food systems, 7 chapters on the future of major food commodities, and 3 chapters on food systems measurement and modeling tools. The contributors come from across CGIAR and many other partner research institutions around the world. This collection was begun as part of the CGIAR Research Initiative on Foresight during the 2022–2024 period and completed as part of the ongoing area of work on foresight and prioritization under the CGIAR Science Program on Policy Innovations.
Food Systems Modelling
Author: Christian J. Peters
language: en
Publisher: Academic Press
Release Date: 2022-01-08
Food Systems Modelling emphasizes sustainability, including the impact of agriculture and food production on profits, people and environment, with a particular focus on the ability of humanity to continue producing food in the midst of global environmental change. Sections introduce the purpose of models, the definition of a food system, the importance of disciplinary, interdisciplinary, and transdisciplinary inquiry, cover specific branches of modeling in the sustainability of food systems, and wrestle with the challenge of communicating modeling research and appropriately integrating multiple dimensions of sustainability. This book will be a welcomed reference for food scientists, agricultural scientists, nutritionists, environmental scientists, ecologists, economists, those working in agribusiness and food supply chain management, community and public health, and urban and regional planning, as well as academicians and graduate students interested in the sustainability of food systems. - Emphasizes sustainability, including the impact of agriculture and food production on profits - Focuses on the ability of humanity to continue producing food in the midst of global environmental change - Deciphers what models can teach us about food system sustainability