Chronicle Of A Decline Foretold
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Chronicle of a Decline Foretold
Author: Ms.Mitali Das
language: en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date: 2013-01-29
China is on the eve of a demographic shift that will have profound consequences on its economic and social landscape. Within a few years the working age population will reach a historical peak, and then begin a precipitous decline. This fact, along with anecdotes of rapidly rising migrant wages and episodic labor shortages, has raised questions about whether China is poised to cross the Lewis Turning Point, a point at which it would move from a vast supply of low-cost workers to a labor shortage economy. Crossing this threshold will have far-reaching implications for both China and the rest of the world. This paper empirically assesses when the transition to a labor shortage economy is likely to occur. Our central result is that on current trends, the Lewis Turning Point will emerge between 2020 and 2025. Alternative scenarios—with higher fertility, greater labor participation rates, financial reform or higher productivity—may peripherally delay or accelerate the onset of the turning point, but demographics will be the dominant force driving the depletion of surplus labor.
China's Economy in Transition
Author: Mr.Anoop Singh
language: en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date: 2013-11-07
China's current account surplus has declined to around one-quarter the peak reached before the global financial crisis. While this is a major reduction in China's external imbalance, it has not been accompanied by a decisive shift toward consumption-based growth. Instead, the compression in its external surplus has been accomplished through increasing fixed investment so that it is now an even higher share of China's national economy. This increasing reliance on fixed investment as the main driver of China's growth raises questions about the durability of the compression in the external surplus and the sustainability of the current growth model that has had unprecedented success in lifting about 500 million people out of poverty over the last three decades. This volume examines various aspects of the rebalancing process underway in China, highlighting policy lessons for achieving stable, sustainable, and inclusive growth.
Including a Symposium on 50 Years of the Union for Radical Political Economics
Author: Luca Fiorito
language: en
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
Release Date: 2019-05-07
Volume 37A of Research in the History of Economic Thought and Methodology features a symposium celebrating 50 years of the Union of Radical Political Economics, and includes an archival contribution from the papers of Alvin Hansen, reflecting on the influence and contributions of John R. Commons.