Causality And Objectivity In Macroeconomics
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Causality and Objectivity in Macroeconomics
Central banks and other policymaking institutions use causal hypotheses to justify macroeconomic policy decisions to the public and public institutions. These hypotheses say that changes in one macroeconomic aggregate (e.g. aggregate demand) cause changes in other macroeconomic aggregates (e.g. in inflation). An important (perhaps the most important) goal of macroeconomists is to provide conclusive evidence in support of these hypotheses. If they cannot provide any conclusive evidence, then policymaking institutions will be unable to use causal hypotheses to justify policy decisions, and then the scientific objectivity of macroeconomic policy analysis will be questionable. The book analyzes the accounts of causality that have been or can be proposed to capture the type of causality that underlies macroeconomic policy analysis, the empirical methods of causal inference that contemporary macroeconomists have at their disposal, and the conceptions of scientific objectivity that traditionally play a role in economics. The book argues that contemporary macroeconomists cannot provide any conclusive evidence in support of causal hypotheses, and that macroeconomic policy analysis doesn’t qualify as scientifically objective in any of the traditional meanings. The book also considers a number of steps that might have to be taken in order for macroeconomic policy analysis to become more objective. The book addresses philosophers of science and economics as well as (macro-) economists, econometricians and statisticians who are interested in causality and macro-econometric methods of causal inference and their wider philosophical and social context.
Determinism, Causality and Explanation in Economics
In recent years, the concepts of determinism, causality, and explanation have taken on particular importance in the economic literature. Due to the failures of economic predictions based on mathematical models, philosophers and economists turned their attention to methodological issues. At the same time, heterodox approaches to economics have received increased attention, including the Austrian school of economics, an intellectual tradition that perceives economics as a science of human action and has emphasised the role of causal explanations practically from its inception. This book opens by exploring disputes in the philosophy of science over the fundamental goal of science. While instrumentalists argue that scientists should aim at good predictions regardless of the veracity of theories, according to scientific realists, they should look for knowledge that reflects reality. The book shows that the Austrian tradition adheres to scientific realism and can be perceived as a middle ground between historicism and positivism. It discusses the determinism/free will problem in economics and its methodological relevance. Then, it examines various theories of causality (regularity, counterfactual, interventionist, probabilistic, and process/mechanistic) and their applicability to economics. Finally, it explores possible and desirable types of explanations in economics. As the book tries to show, the Austrian school offers a unique and valuable approach to these issues. The book will be of particular interest to readers in economic theory, philosophy of economics, and economic methodology, especially those appreciating heterodox traditions.
The Routledge Handbook of Causality and Causal Methods
The Routledge Handbook of Causality and Causal Methods adopts a pluralistic, interdisciplinary approach to causality. It formulates distinct questions and problems of causality as they arise across scientific and policy fields. Exploring, in a comparative way, how these questions and problems are addressed in different areas, the Handbook fosters dialogue and exchange. It emphasizes the role of the researchers and the normative considerations that arise in the development of methodological and empirical approaches. The Handbook includes authors from all over the world and with many different disciplinary backgrounds, and its 50 chapters appear in print here for the first time. The chapters are organized into the following seven parts: Causal Pluralism from Theory to Practice Causal Theory and the Role of Researchers Features of Causal Systems Causal Methods, Experimentation and Observation Measurement and Data Causality, Knowledge, and Action Causal Theory across Disciplinary Borders Essential reading for scholars interested in an interdisciplinary approach to causality and causal methods, the volume is also a valuable resource for advanced undergraduates as well as for graduate students interested in delving into the rich field of causality. Chapters 15 and 36 of this book are freely available as downloadable Open Access PDFs at http://www.taylorfrancis.com under a Creative Commons [Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives (CC-BY-NC-ND)] 4.0 license.