Bayesian Model Selection And Statistical Modeling
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Bayesian Model Selection and Statistical Modeling
Along with many practical applications, Bayesian Model Selection and Statistical Modeling presents an array of Bayesian inference and model selection procedures. It thoroughly explains the concepts, illustrates the derivations of various Bayesian model selection criteria through examples, and provides R code for implementation. The author shows how to implement a variety of Bayesian inference using R and sampling methods, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo. He covers the different types of simulation-based Bayesian model selection criteria, including the numerical calculation of Bayes factors, the Bayesian predictive information criterion, and the deviance information criterion. He also provides a theoretical basis for the analysis of these criteria. In addition, the author discusses how Bayesian model averaging can simultaneously treat both model and parameter uncertainties. Selecting and constructing the appropriate statistical model significantly affect the quality of results in decision making, forecasting, stochastic structure explorations, and other problems. Helping you choose the right Bayesian model, this book focuses on the framework for Bayesian model selection and includes practical examples of model selection criteria.
Bayesian Statistical Modelling
Bayesian methods combine the evidence from the data at hand with previous quantitative knowledge to analyse practical problems in a wide range of areas. The calculations were previously complex, but it is now possible to routinely apply Bayesian methods due to advances in computing technology and the use of new sampling methods for estimating parameters. Such developments together with the availability of freeware such as WINBUGS and R have facilitated a rapid growth in the use of Bayesian methods, allowing their application in many scientific disciplines, including applied statistics, public health research, medical science, the social sciences and economics. Following the success of the first edition, this reworked and updated book provides an accessible approach to Bayesian computing and analysis, with an emphasis on the principles of prior selection, identification and the interpretation of real data sets. The second edition: Provides an integrated presentation of theory, examples, applications and computer algorithms. Discusses the role of Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods in computing and estimation. Includes a wide range of interdisciplinary applications, and a large selection of worked examples from the health and social sciences. Features a comprehensive range of methodologies and modelling techniques, and examines model fitting in practice using Bayesian principles. Provides exercises designed to help reinforce the reader’s knowledge and a supplementary website containing data sets and relevant programs. Bayesian Statistical Modelling is ideal for researchers in applied statistics, medical science, public health and the social sciences, who will benefit greatly from the examples and applications featured. The book will also appeal to graduate students of applied statistics, data analysis and Bayesian methods, and will provide a great source of reference for both researchers and students. Praise for the First Edition: “It is a remarkable achievement to have carried out such a range of analysis on such a range of data sets. I found this book comprehensive and stimulating, and was thoroughly impressed with both the depth and the range of the discussions it contains.” – ISI - Short Book Reviews “This is an excellent introductory book on Bayesian modelling techniques and data analysis” – Biometrics “The book fills an important niche in the statistical literature and should be a very valuable resource for students and professionals who are utilizing Bayesian methods.” – Journal of Mathematical Psychology
Introduction to Statistical Modelling and Inference
The complexity of large-scale data sets (“Big Data”) has stimulated the development of advanced computational methods for analysing them. There are two different kinds of methods to aid this. The model-based method uses probability models and likelihood and Bayesian theory, while the model-free method does not require a probability model, likelihood or Bayesian theory. These two approaches are based on different philosophical principles of probability theory, espoused by the famous statisticians Ronald Fisher and Jerzy Neyman. Introduction to Statistical Modelling and Inference covers simple experimental and survey designs, and probability models up to and including generalised linear (regression) models and some extensions of these, including finite mixtures. A wide range of examples from different application fields are also discussed and analysed. No special software is used, beyond that needed for maximum likelihood analysis of generalised linear models. Students are expected to have a basic mathematical background in algebra, coordinate geometry and calculus. Features • Probability models are developed from the shape of the sample empirical cumulative distribution function (cdf) or a transformation of it. • Bounds for the value of the population cumulative distribution function are obtained from the Beta distribution at each point of the empirical cdf. • Bayes’s theorem is developed from the properties of the screening test for a rare condition. • The multinomial distribution provides an always-true model for any randomly sampled data. • The model-free bootstrap method for finding the precision of a sample estimate has a model-based parallel – the Bayesian bootstrap – based on the always-true multinomial distribution. • The Bayesian posterior distributions of model parameters can be obtained from the maximum likelihood analysis of the model. This book is aimed at students in a wide range of disciplines including Data Science. The book is based on the model-based theory, used widely by scientists in many fields, and compares it, in less detail, with the model-free theory, popular in computer science, machine learning and official survey analysis. The development of the model-based theory is accelerated by recent developments in Bayesian analysis.