Bayesian Forecast Combination For Var Models
Download Bayesian Forecast Combination For Var Models PDF/ePub or read online books in Mobi eBooks. Click Download or Read Online button to get Bayesian Forecast Combination For Var Models book now. This website allows unlimited access to, at the time of writing, more than 1.5 million titles, including hundreds of thousands of titles in various foreign languages.
Bayesian Forecast Combination for VAR Models
We consider forecast combination and, indirectly, model selection for VAR models when there is uncertainty about which variables to include in the model in addition to the forecast variables. The key difference from traditional Bayesian variable selection is that we also allow for uncertainty regarding which endogenous variables to include in the model. That is, all models include the forecast variables, but may otherwise have differing sets of endogenous variables. This is a difficult problem to tackle with a traditional Bayesian approach. Our solution is to focus on the forecasting performance for the variables of interest and we construct model weights from the predictive likelihood of the forecast variables. The procedure is evaluated in a small simulation study and found to perform competitively in applications to real world data.
Bayesian Econometrics
Author: Siddhartha Chib
language: en
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
Release Date: 2008-12-18
Illustrates the scope and diversity of modern applications, reviews advances, and highlights many desirable aspects of inference and computations. This work presents an historical overview that describes key contributions to development and makes predictions for future directions.
Bayesian Hierarchical Models
An intermediate-level treatment of Bayesian hierarchical models and their applications, this book demonstrates the advantages of a Bayesian approach to data sets involving inferences for collections of related units or variables, and in methods where parameters can be treated as random collections. Through illustrative data analysis and attention to statistical computing, this book facilitates practical implementation of Bayesian hierarchical methods. The new edition is a revision of the book Applied Bayesian Hierarchical Methods. It maintains a focus on applied modelling and data analysis, but now using entirely R-based Bayesian computing options. It has been updated with a new chapter on regression for causal effects, and one on computing options and strategies. This latter chapter is particularly important, due to recent advances in Bayesian computing and estimation, including the development of rjags and rstan. It also features updates throughout with new examples. The examples exploit and illustrate the broader advantages of the R computing environment, while allowing readers to explore alternative likelihood assumptions, regression structures, and assumptions on prior densities. Features: Provides a comprehensive and accessible overview of applied Bayesian hierarchical modelling Includes many real data examples to illustrate different modelling topics R code (based on rjags, jagsUI, R2OpenBUGS, and rstan) is integrated into the book, emphasizing implementation Software options and coding principles are introduced in new chapter on computing Programs and data sets available on the book’s website