Avoiding Coping With Surprise In Great Power Conflicts

Coping with Surprise in Great Power Conflicts

Surprise has always been an element of warfare, but the return of great power competition—and the high-level threat that it poses—gives urgency to thinking about surprise now. Because the future is highly uncertain, and great powers have not fought each other for over 70 years, surprise is highly likely in a future great power conflict. This study, therefore, examines potential surprises in a great power conflict, particularly in a conflict’s initial stages when the interaction of adversaries’ technologies, prewar plans, and military doctrines first becomes manifest. It is not an attempt to project the future. Rather, it seeks to do the opposite: explore the range of possible future conflicts to see where surprises might lurk.

Avoiding Coping with Surprise in Great Power Conflicts

Disarmed

Anti-gun zealots in the United States insist that the Second Amendment’s right to keep and bear arms is a “relic.” Try telling that to the people of Ukraine. Ukraine never protected its citizens’ right to keep and bear arms. But as Russia was about to invade, Ukraine did a critical about-face. Ukraine’s government encouraged civilians to carry firearms to defend themselves and their country. It handed out 25,000 fully automatic weapons, while Ukrainians rushed to buy AR-15 rifles that American gun-controllers insist “no one needs.” Did the arming of Ukraine’s civilians make a difference? You bet. Armed citizens have played a crucial role in holding off the massive Russian army. This powerful book highlights how they did it and what they did wrong. Constitutional scholar and host of The Four Boxes Diner YouTube Channel, Mark W. Smith reveals why the lessons learned in Ukraine matter to Americans, and why we must tirelessly resist all efforts to disarm us. Unless we heed Ukraine’s cautionary example, we too may pay a steep price.