Asymmetric Loss Functions And The Rationality Of Expected Stock Returns
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Asymmetric Loss Functions and the Rationality of Expected Stock Returns
We combine the innovative approaches of Elliott, Komunjer, and Timmermann (2005) and Patton and Timmermann (2007) with a block bootstrap to analyze whether asymmetric loss functions can rationalize the Samp;P 500 return expectations of individual forecasters from the Livingston Surveys. Although the rationality of these forecasts has often been rejected, earlier studies rely on the assumption that positive and negative forecast errors of identical magnitude are equally important to forecasters. Allowing for homogenous asymmetric loss, our evidence still strongly rejects forecast rationality. However, if we allow for variation in asymmetric loss functions across forecasters, we not only find significant differences in preferences, but we can also often no longer reject forecast rationality. Our conclusions raise serious doubts about the homogeneous expectations assumption often made in asset pricing, portfolio construction and corporate finance models.
Artificial Neural Networks and Machine Learning – ICANN 2018
This three-volume set LNCS 11139-11141 constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 27th International Conference on Artificial Neural Networks, ICANN 2018, held in Rhodes, Greece, in October 2018. The papers presented in these volumes was carefully reviewed and selected from total of 360 submissions. They are related to the following thematic topics: AI and Bioinformatics, Bayesian and Echo State Networks, Brain Inspired Computing, Chaotic Complex Models, Clustering, Mining, Exploratory Analysis, Coding Architectures, Complex Firing Patterns, Convolutional Neural Networks, Deep Learning (DL), DL in Real Time Systems, DL and Big Data Analytics, DL and Big Data, DL and Forensics, DL and Cybersecurity, DL and Social Networks, Evolving Systems – Optimization, Extreme Learning Machines, From Neurons to Neuromorphism, From Sensation to Perception, From Single Neurons to Networks, Fuzzy Modeling, Hierarchical ANN, Inference and Recognition, Information and Optimization, Interacting with The Brain, Machine Learning (ML), ML for Bio Medical systems, ML and Video-Image Processing, ML and Forensics, ML and Cybersecurity, ML and Social Media, ML in Engineering, Movement and Motion Detection, Multilayer Perceptrons and Kernel Networks, Natural Language, Object and Face Recognition, Recurrent Neural Networks and Reservoir Computing, Reinforcement Learning, Reservoir Computing, Self-Organizing Maps, Spiking Dynamics/Spiking ANN, Support Vector Machines, Swarm Intelligence and Decision-Making, Text Mining, Theoretical Neural Computation, Time Series and Forecasting, Training and Learning.
Essays in Nonlinear Time Series Econometrics
Author: Niels Haldrup
language: en
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
Release Date: 2014-05
A book on nonlinear economic relations that involve time. It covers specification testing of linear versus non-linear models, model specification testing, estimation of smooth transition models, volatility modelling using non-linear model specification, analysis of high dimensional data set, and forecasting.