Assessing The Impact Of Structural Reforms On Potential Output The Case Of Morocco
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Assessing the Impact of Structural Reforms on Potential Output: The Case of Morocco
Author: Hippolyte W. Balima
language: en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date: 2023-10-27
This paper assesses Morocco’s potential output and the scope for structural reforms to reverse the downward trend in economic performance observed since the Global Financial Crisis. Using multivariate filtering (MVF) techniques, our analysis finds that the downward secular trend in potential growth was primarily driven by the decline in the contribution of labor inputs. We then combine production function and general equilibrium model approaches to provide estimates of the potential macroeconomic impact of Morocco’s structural reform agenda. The results suggest that the planned structural reforms could deliver sizable output gains in the medium to long term with reforms that would reduce the large gender gap in Morocco’s labor market yielding the greatest payoffs.
Morocco’s Quest for Stronger and Inclusive Growth
Author: Mr. Roberto Cardarelli
language: en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date: 2023-10-09
Throughout the past two decades, Morocco has faced several external and domestic shocks, including large swings in international oil prices, regional geopolitical tensions, severe droughts, and most recently the impact of the pandemic and the economic fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Despite rough waters, the government stayed the course and remained focused not only on immediate stability, but also on the long-term needs of the Moroccan economy. This involved the adoption of a series of difficult measures, like the elimination of energy subsidies, and a strategy aimed at improving the country’s infrastructure, diversifying the production and export bases by attracting foreign investment, and modernizing the governance structure of the public administration. The road to higher and more inclusive growth, however, remains steep. Despite gains in poverty reduction, literacy and lifespans, Morocco economy continues to face a high share of inactive youth, large gaps in economic opportunities for women, a fragmented social protection system, and remaining barriers to private sector development. An ambitious reform agenda is needed to better meet the aspirations of Moroccans, by making economic growth stronger, more resilient and more inclusive, particularly to provide greater opportunities for young, women, and entrepreneurs. Morocco appears well positioned to address these challenges, and indeed, the country has recently sought to define and pursue a new “model of development”, through national debates and a more inclusive approach to reform. Significant reforms have been announced recently that revamp both the social protection system and the SOEs business model. This book draws lessons from the reforms Morocco has implemented in the past few decades and charts a course for Morocco by addressing key areas for reform.
Morocco: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
Author: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
language: en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date: 2022-02-09
Thanks to a successful vaccination campaign, COVID19 cases have declined sharply in 2021, and the Moroccan economy is rebounding. Economic activity has recovered most of the ground lost with the severe recession of 2020 and is expected to grow at 6.3 percent in 2021. Among the factors propelling the rebound are the exceptional harvest after two years of drought, continued fiscal and monetary stimulus, and the persistent buoyancy of remittances. Going forward, Morocco’s growth is expected to remain at about 3 percent, assuming the acceleration of new cases in early 2022 proves transitory and the effects of the pandemic on activity gradually fade. Recent inflationary pressures remained manageable and are expected to wane in 2022, as cost pressures from global and domestic supply disruptions are reabsorbed. After its sharp contraction in 2020, the current account deficit is projected to widen in 2021 and over the medium term, but Morocco emerges from the pandemic with a much stronger international reserve position.