A Statistics And Physics Based Tropical Cyclone Full Track Model For Catastrophe Risk Modeling
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A statistics and physics-based tropical cyclone full track model for catastrophe risk modeling
Catastrophe (CAT) risk modeling of perils such as typhoon and earthquake has become a prevailing practice in the insurance and reinsurance industry. The event generation model is the key component of the CAT modeling. In this paper, a physics-based tropical cyclone (TC) full track model is introduced to model typhoons events in the western North Pacific basin. At the same time, a comprehensive test of the model is presented from the perspective of CAT risk modeling for insurance and reinsurance applications. The full track model includes the genesis, track, intensity, and landing models. Driven by the global environmental circulations, the model employs the advection and beta drift theory in atmospheric dynamics to model the track of typhoons. The proposed model is novel in the way of modeling the genesis of TCs with three-dimension kernel distributions in space and time. This enables the simulation of seasonal characteristics of TCs. By generating 10,000-year TC events, we comprehensively test the model from the standpoint of CAT insurance and reinsurance applications. The typhoon hazard model and the generated events can serve as the inputs for assessing the typhoon risk and insured loss caused by winds, rains, floods, and storm surges.
Natural Catastrophe Risk Management and Modelling
Author: Kirsten Mitchell-Wallace
language: en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date: 2017-04-24
This book covers both the practical and theoretical aspects of catastrophe modelling for insurance industry practitioners and public policymakers. Written by authors with both academic and industry experience it also functions as an excellent graduate-level text and overview of the field. Ours is a time of unprecedented levels of risk from both natural and anthropogenic sources. Fortunately, it is also an era of relatively inexpensive technologies for use in assessing those risks. The demand from both commercial and public interests—including (re)insurers, NGOs, global disaster management agencies, and local authorities—for sophisticated catastrophe risk assessment tools has never been greater, and contemporary catastrophe modelling satisfies that demand. Combining the latest research with detailed coverage of state-of-the-art catastrophe modelling techniques and technologies, this book delivers the knowledge needed to use, interpret, and build catastrophe models, and provides greater insight into catastrophe modelling’s enormous potential and possible limitations. The first book containing the detailed, practical knowledge needed to support practitioners as effective catastrophe risk modellers and managers Includes hazard, vulnerability and financial material to provide the only independent, comprehensive overview of the subject, accessible to students and practitioners alike Demonstrates the relevance of catastrophe models within a practical, decision-making framework and illustrates their many applications Includes contributions from many of the top names in the field, globally, from industry, academia, and government Natural Catastrophe Risk Management and Modelling: A Practitioner’s Guide is an important working resource for catastrophe modelling analysts and developers, actuaries, underwriters, and those working in compliance or regulatory functions related to catastrophe risk. It is also valuable for scientists and engineers seeking to gain greater insight into catastrophe risk management and its applications.
Risk Modeling for Hazards and Disasters
Risk Modeling for Hazards and Disasters covers all major aspects of catastrophe risk modeling, from hazards through to financial analysis. It explores relevant new science in risk modeling, indirect losses, assessment of impact and consequences to insurance losses, and current changes in risk modeling practice, along with case studies. It also provides further insight into the shortcomings of current models and examines model risk and ideas to diversify risk assessment. Risk Modeling for Hazards and Disasters instructs readers on how to assess, price and then hedge the losses from natural and manmade catastrophes. This book reviews current model development and science and explains recent changes in the catastrophe modeling space, including new initiatives covering uncertainty and big data in the assessment of risk for insurance pricing and portfolio management. Edited by a leading expert in both hazards and risk, this book is authored by a global panel including major modeling vendors, modeling consulting firms, and well-known catastrophe modeling scientists. Risk Modeling for Hazards and Disasters provides important insight into how models are used to price and manage risk. - Includes high profile case studies such as the Newcastle earthquake, Hurricane Andrew and Hurricane Katrina - Provides crucial information on new ideas and platforms that will help address the new demands for risk management and catastrophe risk reporting - Presents the theory and practice needed to know how models are created and what is and what is not important in the modeling process - Covers relevant new science in risk modeling, indirect losses, assessment of impact and consequences to insurance losses, and current changes in risk modeling practice, along with case studies