A Practitioner S Guide To State And Local Population Projections
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A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections
Author: Stanley K. Smith
language: en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date: 2013-12-16
This book focuses on the methodology and analysis of state and local population projections. It describes the most commonly used data sources and application techniques for four types of projection methods: cohort-component, trend extrapolation, structural models, and microsimulation. It covers the components of population growth, sources of data, the formation of assumptions, the development of evaluation criteria, and the determinants of forecast accuracy. It considers the strengths and weaknesses of various projection methods and pays special attention to the unique problems that characterize small-area projections. The authors provide practical guidance to demographers, planners, market analysts, and others called on to construct state and local population projections. They use many examples and illustrations and present suggestions for dealing with special populations, unique circumstances, and inadequate or unreliable data. They describe techniques for controlling one set of projections to another, for interpolating between time points, for sub-dividing age groups, and for constructing projections of population-related variables (e.g., school enrollment, households). They discuss the role of judgment and the importance of the political context in which projections are made. They emphasize the “utility” of projections, or their usefulness for decision making in a world of competing demands and limited resources. This comprehensive book will provide readers with an understanding not only of the mechanics of the most commonly used population projection methods, but also of the many complex issues affecting their construction, interpretation, evaluation, and use.
Handbook of Population
The 2nd edition of the Handbook of Population covers the major topics of the discipline of demography, including current substantive, methodological and theoretical issues of interest, as well as new and emerging topics in the field. In addition to revised, updated and extended chapters that were included in the 1st edition, this 2nd edition of the Handbook brings to the forefront entirely new chapters covering such major themes as children, adoption, sexuality, inequality, population psychology, rural demography, and obesity. Chapters in this Handbook will expand our knowledge of the field, and will raise awareness of the causes and the consequences of demographic behavior and events in societies throughout the world. This 2nd edition will also serve as a reference in the field of population studies for years to come. It will generate new questions and research ideas and will positively impact the growth, development, and expansion of demography.
Cohort Change Ratios and their Applications
This textbook focuses on the cohort change ratio (CCR) method. It presents powerful, yet relatively simple ways to generate accurate demographic estimates and forecasts that are cost efficient and require fewer resources than other techniques. The concepts, analytical frameworks, and methodological tools presented do not require extensive knowledge of demographics, mathematics, or statistics. The demographic focus is on the characteristics of populations, especially age and sex composition, but these methods are applicable estimating and forecasting other characteristics and total population. The book contains more traditional applications such as the Hamilton-Perry method, but also includes new applications of the CCR method such as stable population theory. Real world empirical examples are provided for every application; along with excel files containing data and program code, which are accessible online. Topics covered include basic demographic measures, sources of demographic information, forecasting and estimating (both current and historical) populations, modifications to current methods, forecasting school enrollment and other characteristics, estimating life expectancy, stable population theory, decomposition of the CCR into its migration and mortality components, and the utility of the CCR. This textbook is designed to provide material for an advanced undergraduate or graduate course on demographic methods. It can also be used as a supplement for other courses including applied demography, business and economic forecasting and market research.