A Medium Scale Dsge Model For The Integrated Policy Framework
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A Medium-Scale DSGE Model for the Integrated Policy Framework
Author: Mr. Tobias Adrian
language: en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date: 2022-01-28
This paper jointly analyzes the optimal conduct of monetary policy, foreign exchange intervention, fiscal policy, macroprudential policy, and capital flow management. This policy analysis is based on an estimated medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of the world economy, featuring a range of nominal and real rigidities, extensive macrofinancial linkages with endogenous risk, and diverse spillover transmission channels. In the pursuit of inflation and output stabilization objectives, it is optimal to adjust all policies in response to domestic and global financial cycle upturns and downturns when feasible—including foreign exchange intervention and capital flow management under some conditions—to widely varying degrees depending on the structural characteristics of the economy. The framework is applied empirically to four small open advanced and emerging market economies.
The Ararat Fiscal Strategy Model: A Structural Framework for Fiscal Policy Analysis in Armenia
Author: Victoria Babajanyan
language: en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date: 2022-06-10
This paper presents an overview of the Ararat Fiscal Strategy Model (AFSM), which is a structural, New-Keynesian, DSGE, small open economy model with a rich fiscal block that includes several expenditure and revenue instruments, and types of debt. The AFSM is now a formal part of the Ministry of Finance analytical toolkit to do macroeconomic fiscal policy scenario analysis, which feeds into policy discussions, budget planning, and the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework. The model was applied to assses the macroeconomic impact of the “first wave” of the Covid-19 pandemic on the Armenian economy, including the mitigating effects of policy responses. AFSM simulations revealed a potential severe impact in 2020, with declines in GDP and consumption of 12.9 and 11.7 percent, respectively, and a cumulative loss of GDP of 38 percent for the period 2020-2023. They also highlighted a significant fiscal outlook deterioration that would increase public debt-to-GDP ratios by 18.8 percentage points over 2020-23. The package of counter-cyclical fiscal measures of 3.6 percent of GDP, however, was estimated to cushion the 2020 GDP decline by almost 2 percentage points, as well as protect jobs. A second AFSM application related to the 2018 public investment under-execution showed the importance of improving the efficiency of public investment to have positive macroeconomic and fiscal effects.
DSGE Models for Real Business Cycle and New Keynesian Macroeconomics
Author: Giuseppe Chirichiello
language: en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date: 2024-05-20
This textbook introduces graduate and upper undergraduate students to Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models. As DSGE models become integral in advanced coursework, this book serves as an invaluable guide, explaining the complexities with a methodological red thread across its five chapters. Starting with the stochastic dynamic models of the Real Business Cycle (RBC) and progressing through the field of New Keynesian Macroeconomics (NKE), it employs DSGE models to shed light on the dynamic nature of economic systems. The book presents the Blanchard-Kahn methodology for theoretical solutions, discussing its usefulness and limitations as models evolve in complexity. The book goes on to explain the shift from analytical to numerical solutions, showcasing the DYNARE software and providing coding insights. Unique to this volume is a chapter on difference equations, equipping students with essential mathematical tools, and a concluding exploration of a medium-sized NewKeynesian Economics model. This book will equip students to navigate the theoretical complexities of the topic and to independently replicate and comprehend the presented results. It bridges the gap between classical and Keynesian paradigms, reviving the debate in today's "RBC vs NKE" landscape. It will enable students to master the essence of macroeconomic theories and methodologies, paving the way for their scholarly pursuits.