A Deep Dive Into Tax Buoyancy Comparing Estimation Techniques In A Large Heterogeneous Panel
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A Deep Dive Into Tax Buoyancy: Comparing Estimation Techniques in a Large Heterogeneous Panel
Author: Antoine Cornevin
language: en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date: 2023-03-17
This paper provides new empirical evidence on tax buoyancy (tax revenues responsiveness to changes in economic activity) over the period 1990-2020 using a large panel of 185 countries. This study compares short-term and long-term buoyancy coefficients for total tax revenues and different individual taxes by reviewing and contrasting a range of estimators. Our results broadly confirm the main body of the literature on long-term buoyancy hovering around one. We find evidence of lower estimates for short-term buoyancy relative to previous literature, suggesting a limited automatic stabilization power of taxes. As a robustness exercise, in addition to changes in tax rates, we introduce novel control variables for tax exemptions and bases to disentangle discretionary from automatic tax revenue changes. The marginal changes in the results when controlling for policy actions suggest that, on average, the economic cycle does not necessarily influence tax reforms.
Revenue Statistics 2023 Tax Revenue Buoyancy in OECD Countries
This annual publication gives a conceptual framework to define which government receipts should be regarded as taxes. It presents a unique set of detailed and internationally comparable tax data in a common format for all OECD countries from 1965 onwards. This year’s edition includes a special feature on tax revenue buoyancy in OECD countries.
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