2021 Comprehensive Surveillance Review Background Paper On The Surveillance Priority Confronting Risks And Uncertainties
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2021 Comprehensive Surveillance Review— Background Paper on The Surveillance Priority Confronting Risks and Uncertainties
Author: International Monetary
language: en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date: 2021-05-18
The coverage of risks has become more systematic since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC): staff reports now regularly identify major risks and provide an assessment of their likelihood and economic impact, summarized in Risk Assessment Matrices (RAM). But still limited attention is paid to the range of possible outcomes. Also, risk identification is useful only so much as to inform policy design to preemptively respond to relevant risks and/or better prepare for them. In this regard, policy recommendations in surveillance could be richer in considering various risk management approaches. To this end, progress is needed on two dimensions: • Increasing emphasis on the range of potential outcomes to improve policy design. • Encouraging more proactive policy advice on how to manage risks. Efforts should continue to leverage internal and external resources to support risk analysis and advice in surveillance.
2021 Comprehensive Surveillance Review— Background Paper on Main Findings from The Stakeholder Surveys
Author: International Monetary
language: en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date: 2021-05-18
This note presents key results from the surveys of country authorities, IMF Executive Directors (EDs), and mission chiefs (MCs) to inform the Comprehensive Surveillance Review (CSR). Key takeaways and cross-cutting themes that emerge are Trends, Policy Challenges, Surveillance Priorities, Surveillance modalities and Traction.
2021 Comprehensive Surveillance Review— Background Paper on Scenario Planning
Author: International Monetary
language: en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date: 2021-05-18
The scenario planning exercises help to draw out the surveillance priorities and stress- test the robustness of those priorities to uncertainties in the decade ahead. To inform the two priorities on confronting risks and uncertainties and mitigating spillovers, the scenarios illustrate how different shocks and alternative policy approaches carry their own risks and can have both positive and negative spillovers. The scenarios also illustrate some of the complex economic and non-economic factors that feed into the priority on economic sustainability and demonstrate how resource constraints and changing economic structures underpin the need for a unified policy approach.