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Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers

Much economic advice is bogus quantification, warn two leading experts in this essential book, now with a preface on COVID-19. Invented numbers offer a false sense of security; we need instead robust narratives that give us the confidence to manage uncertainty. “An elegant and careful guide to thinking about personal and social economics, especially in a time of uncertainty. The timing is impeccable." — Christine Kenneally, New York Times Book Review Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry’s actuarial tables and the gambler’s roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one—not least Steve Jobs—knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package—what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?—demonstrate only that their advice is worthless. The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit.
Automotive Mechatronics: Operational and Practical Issues

Author: B. T. Fijalkowski
language: en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date: 2010-11-25
This book presents operational and practical issues of automotive mechatronics with special emphasis on the heterogeneous automotive vehicle systems approach, and is intended as a graduate text as well as a reference for scientists and engineers involved in the design of automotive mechatronic control systems. As the complexity of automotive vehicles increases, so does the dearth of high competence, multi-disciplined automotive scientists and engineers. This book provides a discussion into the type of mechatronic control systems found in modern vehicles and the skills required by automotive scientists and engineers working in this environment. Divided into two volumes and five parts, Automotive Mechatronics aims at improving automotive mechatronics education and emphasises the training of students’ experimental hands-on abilities, stimulating and promoting experience among high education institutes and produce more automotive mechatronics and automation engineers. The main subject that are treated are: VOLUME I: RBW or XBW unibody or chassis-motion mechatronic control hypersystems; DBW AWD propulsion mechatronic control systems; BBW AWB dispulsion mechatronic control systems; VOLUME II: SBW AWS diversion mechatronic control systems;ABW AWA suspension mechatronic control systems. This volume was developed for undergraduate and postgraduate students as well as for professionals involved in all disciplines related to the design or research and development of automotive vehicle dynamics, powertrains, brakes, steering, and shock absorbers (dampers). Basic knowledge of college mathematics, college physics, and knowledge of the functionality of automotive vehicle basic propulsion, dispulsion, conversion and suspension systems is required.
Persons, Passions & Politics

Author: Mohammad Yunus
language: en
Publisher: Sahibabad, India : Vicas, c1980 [i.e. 1979]
Release Date: 1980
Autobiographical reminiscences of an Indian freedom fighter and political leader.