Default In Chinese
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Assessing Default Risks for Chinese Firms
Author: Daniel Law
language: en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date: 2015-06-26
Assessing default risks for Chinese firms is hard. Standard measures of risk using market indicators may be unreliable because of implicit guarantees, the large role played by less-informed investors, and other market imperfections. We test this assertion by estimating stand-alone 1-year default probabilities for non-financial firms in China using an equity-based structural model and debt costs. We find evidence that the equity measure of default risk is sensitive to a firm’s balance sheet health, profitability, and ownership; specifically, default probabilities are higher for weaker, less profitable, and state-owned firms. In contrast, measures based on the cost of debt seem largely detached from fundamentals and instead determined by implicit guarantees. We conclude that for individual firms, equity-based measures, while far from perfect, provide a better measure of stand-alone default risks than borrowing costs.
The Defaulting State and the South China Sea Arbitration
Author: Alfredo C. Robles Jr.
language: en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date: 2023-05-27
This book focuses on the legal and procedural problems caused by China’s default in the South China Sea Arbitration. Many of these problems arose because in several respects, China departed from the conduct of other defaulting States in cases before the International Court of Justice. The book argues that the Tribunal, confronted with the difficulties of maintaining the balance between two parties in a situation of default, drew on the full range of its powers to ensure that neither China nor the Philippines would suffer from China’s default. Further, the book describes the shortcomings of the submissions of putative amicus curiae. It refutes China’s questioning of the independence and impartiality of the experts and of the judges. In so doing, it explains the expert opinions and the Tribunal ’s assessments of the latter in the areas of satellite imagery, coral reef ecology, and navigational safety, while rebutting the half- truths and counter-truths disseminated by Chinese scholars about the proceedings. The book compares China’s threats to the independence of the Tribunal to its behavior towards Chinese judges. It places China’s accusations of bias against the Tribunal in the context of China’s domestic situation, and concludes that the Tribunal, acting independently and impartially, was able to perform the judicial function, despite China’s default.
Shadow Banking in China
This timely book investigates the dynamic causes, key forms, potential risks and changing regulation of shadow banking in China. Topics discussed include P2P lending, wealth management products, local government debts, and the underground lending market. Taking policy considerations into account, the author provides a comprehensive analysis of the regulatory instruments tackling the systemic risks in relation to China's shadow banking sector. Central bank's role, interest rate formation mechanism, exchange rate reform and further deepening reform of the regulatory regime and financial markets are also thoroughly discussed in the context of China's continuing financial reform.