Chaos And Time Series Analysis
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Nonlinear Time Series Analysis
The paradigm of deterministic chaos has influenced thinking in many fields of science. Chaotic systems show rich and surprising mathematical structures. In the applied sciences, deterministic chaos provides a striking explanation for irregular behaviour and anomalies in systems which do not seem to be inherently stochastic. The most direct link between chaos theory and the real world is the analysis of time series from real systems in terms of nonlinear dynamics. Experimental technique and data analysis have seen such dramatic progress that, by now, most fundamental properties of nonlinear dynamical systems have been observed in the laboratory. Great efforts are being made to exploit ideas from chaos theory wherever the data displays more structure than can be captured by traditional methods. Problems of this kind are typical in biology and physiology but also in geophysics, economics, and many other sciences.
Analysis of Observed Chaotic Data
Author: Henry Abarbanel
language: en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date: 2012-12-06
When I encountered the idea of chaotic behavior in deterministic dynami cal systems, it gave me both great pause and great relief. The origin of the great relief was work I had done earlier on renormalization group properties of homogeneous, isotropic fluid turbulence. At the time I worked on that, it was customary to ascribe the apparently stochastic nature of turbulent flows to some kind of stochastic driving of the fluid at large scales. It was simply not imagined that with purely deterministic driving the fluid could be turbulent from its own chaotic motion. I recall a colleague remarking that there was something fundamentally unsettling about requiring a fluid to be driven stochastically to have even the semblance of complex motion in the velocity and pressure fields. I certainly agreed with him, but neither of us were able to provide any other reasonable suggestion for the observed, apparently stochastic motions of the turbulent fluid. So it was with relief that chaos in nonlinear systems, namely, complex evolution, indistinguish able from stochastic motions using standard tools such as Fourier analysis, appeared in my bag of physics notions. It enabled me to have a physi cally reasonable conceptual framework in which to expect deterministic, yet stochastic looking, motions. The great pause came from not knowing what to make of chaos in non linear systems.
Deep Learning in Multi-step Prediction of Chaotic Dynamics
The book represents the first attempt to systematically deal with the use of deep neural networks to forecast chaotic time series. Differently from most of the current literature, it implements a multi-step approach, i.e., the forecast of an entire interval of future values. This is relevant for many applications, such as model predictive control, that requires predicting the values for the whole receding horizon. Going progressively from deterministic models with different degrees of complexity and chaoticity to noisy systems and then to real-world cases, the book compares the performances of various neural network architectures (feed-forward and recurrent). It also introduces an innovative and powerful approach for training recurrent structures specific for sequence-to-sequence tasks. The book also presents one of the first attempts in the context of environmental time series forecasting of applying transfer-learning techniques such as domain adaptation.