Bayesian Nonparametric Inference For Stochastic Epidemic Models

Bayesian Nonparametric Inference for Stochastic Epidemic Models

Parametric and Nonparametric Inference from Record-Breaking Data

As statisticians, we are constantly trying to make inferences about the underlying population from which data are observed. This includes estimation and prediction about the underlying population parameters from both complete and incomplete data. Recently, methodology for estimation and prediction from incomplete data has been found useful for what is known as "record-breaking data," that is, data generated from setting new records. There has long been a keen interest in observing all kinds of records-in particular, sports records, financial records, flood records, and daily temperature records, to mention a few. The well-known Guinness Book of World Records is full of this kind of record information. As usual, beyond the general interest in knowing the last or current record value, the statistical problem of prediction of the next record based on past records has also been an important area of record research. Probabilistic and statistical models to describe behavior and make predictions from record-breaking data have been developed only within the last fifty or so years, with a relatively large amount of literature appearing on the subject in the last couple of decades. This book, written from a statistician's perspective, is not a compilation of "records," rather, it deals with the statistical issues of inference from a type of incomplete data, record-breaking data, observed as successive record values (maxima or minima) arising from a phenomenon or situation under study. Prediction is just one aspect of statistical inference based on observed record values.

Stochastic Epidemic Models with Inference

Focussing on stochastic models for the spread of infectious diseases in a human population, this book is the outcome of a two-week ICPAM/CIMPA school on "Stochastic models of epidemics" which took place in Ziguinchor, Senegal, December 5–16, 2015. The text is divided into four parts, each based on one of the courses given at the school: homogeneous models (Tom Britton and Etienne Pardoux), two-level mixing models (David Sirl and Frank Ball), epidemics on graphs (Viet Chi Tran), and statistics for epidemic models (Catherine Larédo). The CIMPA school was aimed at PhD students and Post Docs in the mathematical sciences. Parts (or all) of this book can be used as the basis for traditional or individual reading courses on the topic. For this reason, examples and exercises (some with solutions) are provided throughout.